Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: 10 Weeks of Ceasefire — WTI Channel Pressure, NatGas Bullish?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Remain Balanced as Ceasefire Holds

Crude was muted today, as the conditional U.S.-Iran cease fire, now over ten weeks old, continues to hold alongside a gradual increase in tanker throughput through the Hormuz Straits. As a result, the geopolitical price premium that drove the wilder crude moves earlier in the year has all but disappeared, with attention instead focused on standard supply-demand considerations. This was reflected today in both WTI and Brent.

Global supply continues to reflect a more favorable picture, with U.S. supply near record highs, OPEC + continuing its output discipline, and supply coming on stream from Brazil, Guyana and Canada in a steady rhythm. While we are not seeing full restoration of Iranian and regional supply, that progress has been steady. Demand has shown modest recovery. Asian demand has been improving, but overall global consumption growth for 2026 is still projected to be moderate. Higher interest rates and tighter consumer credit continue to pose a headwind for the recovery in demand, especially in developed markets.

Natural gas was muted today, as the combination of the ceasing fire along with the milder spring weather conditions have been supportive of U.S. and EU storage builds. With geopolitical tensions reduced on the LNG supply front from the Middle East, LNG spot prices have come down. That said, natural gas demand remains healthy into the fall, both into Asia and Europe.

Today’s moves also reflected a wait and see attitude, as today’s U.S. inventory data were released and the next OPEC + signals are still to come. While the truce has reduced the immediate risk of another supply shock in the region, some worry that the deal could still falter, potentially leading to renewed volatility.

Natural Gas Futures Steady at $3.174 – Blue Channel Retest on 2h

Natural Gas traded for $3.174 as 2h NYMEX shows mixed extension candles tested red 50 MA near $3.20 inside blue rising channel. Recent higher lows from $2.978 swing remain intact, indicating buyers to be absorbing floor. RSI sits near 52, showing neutral. Volume profile shows $3.10 as significant pivot.

Price moves toward $3.195-3.256 extension as next resistance cluster. Structure remains bullish above $3.10 as price moves higher inside clean uptrend channel from May low. Price prints higher highs and higher lows as buyers remain in charge on down moves.

Trade Idea: Buy $3.174 targeting $3.256, stop $3.10.

WTI Crude Oil Slips to $90.07 – Blue Channel Breakdown Pressures on 2h

WTI Crude Oil has traded for $90.07 as 2h chart sees red extension candles have breached floor of blue rising channel at $92.50 and red 50 MA at $94.00, and bearish engulfs with long lower shadows printed clean lower lows from recent higher levels, revealing aggressive distribution after failing to reclaim prior higher resistance area. Price moves to accelerate toward $89.75-88.00 extension area. RSI has dipped below 45 showing weakness.

Volume profile shows $94.00-96.00 as failed fair value, where sellers prevailed. White declining trendline from April peak continues to act as resistance area around $94.00. Structure remains firmly bearish below $92.50 as price drifts lower inside extended descending channel from $104 high. Higher timeframe resistance firm at $94.90 pivot. Price action prints lower highs and lower lows as sellers remain in charge on any up move.

Trade Idea: Sell at $90.07 with target at $89.00, stop $91.50.

Brent Crude Oil Holds $93.39 – Blue Descending Channel Floor Tested on 2h

Brent Crude Oil price trades for $93.39 as 2h chart sees mixed green/red extension candles tested floor of blue falling channel as well as red 50 MA at $96.59, while recent higher lows from $92.73 pivot holds for time being while lower highs point to deteriorating structure. RSI remains near 46, showing neutral-to-bearish. Volume profile shows $97.62 as major supply.

Price has retraced to $92.73-91.66 confluence. Price remains neutral-to-bearish below $97.62 as it defends floor of descending channel from April highs while inside a broader downtrend from $110. Price has printed rejection wicks at resistance, which reveals sellers to be present at top.

Trade Idea: Sell $93.39 targeting $92.73, stop $94.50.