NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Price Forecast: Can NVDA Break Above Key Resistance?

Support Structure Builds Beneath NVDA

Shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) have been successfully testing support near the confluence of three dynamic support indicators recently. A retracement low of $189.80 was established three weeks ago, and it has been followed by signs of strength, with the following three weeks establishing a series of higher weekly highs and higher lows. That is a sign of improving demand after the completion of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance.

On the weekly chart, the 20-week and 50-week moving averages aligning near a rising trendline define a confluence support zone. The lower boundary of the support zone, and therefore the more significant level, is the 50-week moving average, currently near $189.61. Consequently, the 20-week moving average near $199.52 has been confirmed as support for two weeks, with the full weekly ranges above that average for the first time in four weeks. It now has greater significance than the 50-week average as near-term trend support. Also, this week’s low of $202.28 is another support level to watch for signals.

$214.39 Breakout Test

A resistance zone has been established near the highs of the last seven weeks. An attempt to break out above the top of the range at $213.99 was made this week, but it failed to hold, leading to a close below that high at $206.84. This week’s high of $214.39 is now the top of the range. A sustained move above this resistance zone would therefore provide an important confirmation that buyers have regained control.

A Bullish Pattern Emerges at Long-Term Support

Understanding the larger market environment via the weekly chart adds to the potential of the daily pattern for NVDA. The daily chart confirms recent dynamic support seen in the weekly chart, with the 100-day and 200-day moving averages defining similar price zones. It shows a potentially bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that has formed at long-term trend support.

Fibonacci Targets Map the Upside Path

An upside breakout of the pattern is signaled on a rally above $214.39, which will trigger a reversal of the recent decline. Initial potential upside targets are indicated by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline at $226.54, followed by a 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the same downswing. Further up is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $265.43. Together, this puts NVDA in a potentially powerful position, but only if recent support is not broken to the downside. Therefore, the ability to hold the recently established support zone remains critical, while a sustained breakout above the $214.39 high would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to higher targets.

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