Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Drone Strikes Push Energy Prices; Buy Today?

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Updated: Mar 20, 2024, 09:53 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Strengthening dollar dampens oil demand, with eyes on Fed's rate decision for future market direction.
Ukrainian drone strikes and OPEC+ cuts hint at tighter crude oil supplies, elevating Brent and WTI prices.
Natural Gas sees modest rise amid complex market dynamics, with technical indicators suggesting bullish sentiment.

Market Overview

Wednesday saw a sideways movement in oil prices, attributed to a stronger dollar and profit-taking after a recent rally. The rising U.S. dollar, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains, has made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, thereby suppressing demand. Market eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision for further cues.

Crude oil supplies face potential constraints following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, with Brent and WTI hitting their highest levels since late October. OPEC+’s continued production cuts into the second quarter of 2024 and possible supply reductions due to Russian export complications further underscore the tension.

These dynamics suggest a bullish outlook for refined products and potentially tighter markets for both oil and natural gas, as disruptions could force Russian producers to cut supply if export challenges persist.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

NG Price Chart

On March 20, Natural Gas (NG) experienced a modest increase, climbing 0.27% to trade at $1.8650. This slight uptick is situated within a complex market landscape, with the asset currently navigating around a pivot point of $1.8531.

The technical outlook delineates key resistance levels at $1.9011, $1.9426, and $1.9851, suggesting potential barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, support is established at $1.8093, $1.7761, and $1.7388, marking crucial points where further declines may be arrested.

The 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages, at $2 and $1.9198 respectively, indicate a bullish sentiment above the pivot.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL edged higher, trading at $82.53, a modest gain of 0.09%. This movement reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment in the oil market, pivoting around a key pivot point of $82.31. The market delineates clear resistance levels at $83.27, $83.99, and $84.74, which could cap further advances.

Conversely, support levels are established at $81.56, $80.84, and $79.95, serving as potential fallbacks in case of a decline. The technical landscape is further illuminated by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $81.36 and the 200-Day EMA at $79.46, both underpinning the current price level.

Given this configuration, USOIL’s trend appears bullish above $82.31, with a breach below this threshold potentially precipitating a sharp downturn.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

UKOIL marginally increased by 0.03%, trading at $87.20. This subtle uptick reflects the market’s cautious optimism amidst current dynamics. With a pivotal point at $86.97, the asset’s immediate resistance and support levels are distinctly outlined.

Resistance is anticipated at $87.75, $88.42, and $89.06, indicating potential thresholds for upward movement. Support, on the other hand, is found at $86.44, $85.60, and $84.93, marking critical zones where declines may find a floor.

The technical stance is reinforced by the 50-Day and 200-Day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $85.78 and $83.74, respectively, underscoring a bullish sentiment above the $86.97 mark.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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