Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: IEA Demand Cut, OPEC Output Weigh on Bullish Sentiment

Market Overview

WTI crude futures climbed to $62 per barrel on Wednesday as signs of potential US-China trade negotiations helped offset bearish supply-side developments. Despite upbeat sentiment, the International Energy Agency cut its 2025 global demand forecast, cautioning of a possible supply surplus through 2026.

At the same time, OPEC+ output is rising faster than anticipated, and progress in nuclear talks could bring more Iranian oil to market.

U.S. inventory data added pressure, with a 2.4 million barrel crude build, though declines at Cushing and in fuel stockpiles limited downside momentum. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key variable.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.28, unable to sustain above the $3.37 resistance. The price remains under bearish pressure, moving within a descending trendline, with both the 50 EMA ($3.43) and 200 EMA ($3.72) sloping downward.

Sellers are firmly in control, and failure to reclaim $3.37 may lead to a retest of key support levels at $3.21, followed by $3.13. The downtrend structure remains intact as long as price stays below the trendline and the 50 EMA.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $60.07, slipping below the ascending triangle support and the 50 EMA ($61.09). This signals a potential bearish breakdown after multiple failed attempts to reclaim $61.55—now acting as immediate resistance.

Further upside remains capped below the 200 EMA at $63.89, while sellers are eyeing support near $59.01. Below that, the next levels to watch are $57.17 and $55.15. The breakdown from the triangle and sustained rejection under both EMAs reflect weakening bullish momentum.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading near $63.99, slipping below the 50 EMA ($64.52) and signaling a possible rejection from the $64.55–$66.04 resistance zone. Price action has repeatedly failed to sustain above this supply area, and the most recent candle points to bearish pressure.

A breakdown below $63.00 would expose the next support at $61.93, followed by $60.07. With the 200 EMA at $67.48 still trending downward and acting as a ceiling, upside momentum remains capped.