Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Middle East Tensions and Tariff Threats Stir Markets

Market Overview

WTI crude oil futures climbed above $63 per barrel on Wednesday, marking a third consecutive session of gains. The rise was fueled by renewed geopolitical concerns that raised the risk of supply disruptions.

Middle East Tensions Escalate

Oil traders reacted to news that Israel struck Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar, expanding its regional campaign just hours after threatening Gaza City. Over the past two years, Israel has also conducted operations in Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, keeping markets on edge about potential escalation.

Supply Dynamics and OPEC+

The geopolitical backdrop added to existing price drivers, including OPEC+’s decision to modestly increase production for October. The move was significantly smaller than prior monthly hikes, reinforcing expectations of tighter supply into the year’s end.

Trade and U.S. Policy Pressure

Global trade tensions also weighed on sentiment. Reports suggest U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed the EU to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods as leverage against Russia, with the U.S. prepared to match any such measures.

This raised concerns about potential disruptions to global demand and trade flows.

Inventory Data Signals Build

On the supply side, U.S. industry data showed crude oil inventories rose by 1.25 million barrels last week, following a 0.62 million-barrel build previously. Rising stockpiles may limit upside momentum if supply concerns ease.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $3.11, consolidating after a steady climb within a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. The move is supported by the 50-EMA at $3.04, which continues to act as dynamic support, while the 200-EMA at $3.08 is being tested as resistance. A close above this zone could clear the path toward $3.19, the next key horizontal barrier.

Momentum remains constructive, with the RSI at 54 holding in neutral territory, suggesting room for further upside without immediate overbought risk. If buyers maintain control, price could extend toward the channel top near $3.20–$3.28.

On the downside, a break below $3.02 would weaken the structure and expose support at $2.95 and $2.87.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $63.29, consolidating after a recovery from the recent low at $61.44. The 4-hour chart shows price reclaiming the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $63.20, with the 50-EMA offering nearby resistance at $63.33. A break above this zone could open the path to $63.74 and the 200-EMA at $64.25, where stronger sellers may reappear.

Momentum is stabilizing, with the RSI at 52 holding above its signal line, suggesting modest upward pressure. If price fails to sustain above $63.20, downside risk increases toward $62.53.

For now, holding above $63.20 favors a gradual move higher, but a rejection at the moving averages could keep crude oil in a range.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading near $67.03, holding steady after recovering from the recent low at $65.08. The 4-hour chart shows price climbing back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $66.75, with immediate resistance sitting at the 61.8% level near $67.14. Clearing this zone could open the way toward the 200-EMA at $67.50 and the higher resistance at $68.42.

Momentum is improving, with the RSI at 54 trending upward, suggesting buying strength is building without overbought pressure. On the downside, support rests at $66.35, and a break below this would expose $65.87.

As long as price holds above $66.75, the short-term bias favors further gains toward the $68 area.