Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Output Hike Meets Tariff-Driven Uncertainty

Market Overview

WTI crude dipped to $67.50 per barrel on Tuesday, retreating from recent highs as energy markets reacted to a fresh blend of supply pressures and policy uncertainty. OPEC+ surprised with a 548,000 bpd output hike for August, its fourth monthly increase, bringing back nearly 80% of prior voluntary cuts.

Meanwhile, U.S. tariff threats toward major trade partners fueled caution, though implementation is delayed until August.

Adding complexity, renewed geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, amid security incidents affecting global shipping, helped cap losses. Despite softening fundamentals, market participants remain wary of further supply disruptions and policy fallout shaping oil and gas price direction.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Futures (NGQ2025) are hovering near $3.39 after failing to hold above the 50-hour EMA at $3.39. The short-term trend remains bearish, with price still capped beneath both the 200-EMA ($3.505) and the descending trendline.

Resistance zones sit at $3.43, $3.474, and $3.518, while immediate support lies at $3.343. A drop below this could push prices toward $3.276 or even $3.209. Momentum is currently neutral, but without a clear breakout above the descending structure, sellers remain in control.

Bulls need a sustained move above $3.474 to shift the bias in their favor. Until then, the market appears range-bound with bearish undertones.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil (USOIL) is holding above short-term support at $67.29 after a modest bounce, following a strong intraday rally that stalled near $68.27. The price remains above both the 50-hour EMA ($67.10) and the 200-hour EMA ($66.84), suggesting short-term momentum still leans toward buyers.

However, the failure to push through the $68.27 resistance raises the risk of consolidation. A clear break above $68.27 could expose $68.99 and $69.86. On the downside, a drop below $67.29 would shift focus back to $66.50 and the ascending trendline near $65.56.

The recent move shows improving structure, but traders should watch for increased volume to confirm any further directional bias.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is trading near $69.35, consolidating just below key resistance at $69.93 after breaking above the 50-hour EMA ($68.76). The short-term structure remains bullish, supported by a rising channel and higher lows. Price is now hovering above the 200-EMA ($68.86), a level that previously capped gains.

A decisive push above $69.93 would open the door toward $70.89 and $72.19. On the downside, initial support is seen at $68.86, followed by $67.32. If bulls lose control here, a retreat toward $65.92 could follow.

While momentum remains positive, traders should watch for confirmation above $69.93 before positioning for further upside. The broader bias remains constructive as long as price stays above trendline support.