Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: XAU Eyes $3,345 as XAG Targets $37.06 Breakout

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) slipped early Tuesday, trading below $3,336 and failing to extend gains from last week’s low. The metal faced renewed pressure as the US Dollar strengthened and investors grew cautious ahead of Wednesday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

Former President Donald Trump’s revived trade rhetoric added further stress to the market. Trump proposed a new 10% “reciprocal tariff” on imports from countries aligned with BRICS, with an August 1 deadline for enforcement.

Additional duties on dozens of Asian and African nations are also under review. “If enacted, these measures could drive costs higher across the board,” said a Barclays macro analyst, referring to the inflationary implications.

Higher inflation expectations may prompt the Federal Reserve to delay anticipated interest rate cuts, thereby reducing demand for non-yielding assets, such as gold. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose to its highest level in nearly two weeks, further pressuring dollar-denominated commodities.

Silver Holds Steady as Risk Sentiment Wavers

In contrast, silver (XAG/USD) showed modest gains, trading around $36.85, up 0.06% in early Asian hours. While silver benefited slightly from safe-haven flows amid falling global equities, the upside remained limited due to Fed uncertainty and a firmer dollar.

Equity markets continue to reel from growing trade risks and potential economic fallout. “The fear of retaliatory tariffs and slowing trade could keep risk assets under pressure,” said an ING commodities strategist.

FOMC Minutes to Guide Next Moves in Precious Metals

Markets are now laser-focused on the FOMC minutes, due to be released on Wednesday. Traders will look for clarity on whether the Fed maintains its higher-for-longer stance or considers easing by year-end.

In the absence of primary US data on Tuesday, gold is likely to remain range-bound. A hawkish Fed tone could send prices lower toward support near $3,313, while dovish hints might fuel a rebound above $3,345.

For now, geopolitical instability and tariff-driven inflation risks provide some underlying support—but the metal remains vulnerable to further dollar strength.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold steadies near $3,336 ahead of Fed minutes, while silver eyes $37.06 resistance with bullish momentum intact despite rising US yields and dollar strength.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate near $3,336, following a rebound off support at $3,327. The hourly chart shows the price hovering between the 50-EMA ($3,328) and 200-EMA ($3,331), reflecting indecision ahead of key macro events.

Buyers have repeatedly defended the ascending trendline, keeping the short-term structure mildly bullish. A sustained push above $3,345 could clear the path toward resistance at $3,363 and $3,378. However, failure to hold $3,327 may expose downside targets at $3,313 and $3,295.

Overall, momentum remains neutral, with traders watching for a decisive break to establish directional conviction heading into the week’s Fed-related catalysts.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is edging higher above $36.85 as bulls attempt to reclaim the $37.06 resistance zone. The price remains supported by the 50-EMA ($36.71) and the 200-EMA ($36.48), reinforcing short-term upward momentum. A clean break above $37.06 could expose $37.32 and potentially $37.58 as next upside targets.

On the downside, initial support rests at $36.73, followed by a key confluence zone around $36.48 near trendline support. The broader ascending channel remains intact, and unless sellers break below $36.18, the bias favors further upside.

Traders should watch for strong volume confirmation near $37 to validate any breakout continuation.