Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Recession Fears and Policy Uncertainty Drag on Energy Sector

Market Overview

WTI crude oil traded near $58 per barrel, its lowest level since May, as mounting supply concerns and broader geopolitical tensions pressured global energy markets.

The International Energy Agency projected a potential 4 million barrels per day surplus next year, warning that rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC output could significantly outpace demand. Weak industrial activity and muted consumption trends have further dampened sentiment across the oil and gas sector.

Investors are now watching upcoming inventory reports for signs of demand recovery, as markets remain on edge over global trade uncertainty and the risk of prolonged energy oversupply heading into 2026.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) futures are trading near $3.00, stabilizing after a steep decline from the $3.45 high. The price is hovering just above a key horizontal support zone at $2.98–$2.90, an area that has repeatedly acted as a reversal point in past sessions.

The 50-day EMA ($3.20) and 200-day EMA ($3.28) remain overhead, signaling that short-term momentum still favors sellers. However, the RSI at 26 shows deeply oversold conditions, hinting at the possibility of a short-term rebound.

A close above $3.10 could trigger a recovery toward $3.18–$3.30, while failure to hold $2.90 risks a slide toward $2.82.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $58.79, consolidating after hitting its lowest level since May. The chart shows prices struggling below the 50-day EMA at $60.56 and 200-day EMA at $62.45, keeping the short-term trend bearish. A falling trendline from the $64.80 high continues to cap recovery attempts.

On the downside, support lies near $58.20 and $57.40, while resistance is seen at $60.00–$61.10. The RSI at 38 indicates mild oversold conditions, hinting at limited downside momentum.

If crude manages to close above $60.50, a corrective bounce toward $61.90 could unfold; otherwise, a break below $58.20 may extend losses toward $56.80.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is trading near $62.44, showing mild recovery after testing its lowest level since May at $62.05. The broader trend remains bearish, with prices still trading below the 50-day EMA ($64.31) and 200-day EMA ($66.14).

A descending trendline from the $70.05 high continues to cap upside momentum. The RSI at 36 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting limited downside pressure in the short term. Immediate resistance lies at $64.20, followed by $65.50, where sellers may re-emerge.

On the downside, a sustained break below $62.00 could expose $60.90 and $60.10. A close above $64.20 would hint at short-term stabilization.