Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Strait of Hormuz Risk—Is a $100 Oil Spike Possible?

Energy Markets Brace for Volatility as Strait Risk Reshapes Oil and Gas Outlook

Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after conflict in the Middle East put important energy routes at risk, leading to fresh worries about supply. About 20% of the world’s seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has increased.

Analysts say as much as 15 million barrels of crude per day could be affected, which may keep prices high for a while. Both Brent and WTI prices increased, while stock markets fell due to worries about inflation and slower growth.

OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day, but shipping and other issues mean this change will not be felt right away. As a result, energy markets are now factoring in higher geopolitical risks in their short-term oil and gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Technical Outlook: Break Above $2.93 Could Lead to Further Gains

Natural gas futures are trading near $2.91 after moving back above the $2.85 support zone, which matches a previous demand area and the 100-period moving average. The price has formed higher lows in a rising short-term channel, suggesting buyers are slowly regaining control.

Recent bullish candles show steady progress rather than sudden jumps, which suggests controlled buying. Immediate resistance is at $2.93, then $3.01 and $3.09. If the price moves above $3.09, the trend would become clearly bullish.

RSI is moving up toward 60, showing improving momentum without being overextended. Support remains steady at $2.85 and $2.77.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $2.93 with a target of $3.09 and a stop below $2.85.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Break Above $70 Shifts Focus to $77–$80

WTI crude oil closed near $71.23 after a strong daily gain that pushed the price above the $70.55 resistance level. This move out of the rising channel confirms a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, with the price now targeting the supply zone between $74.09 and $77.12.

The 50-day and 100-day EMAs are both below the current price and are starting to rise, which supports the ongoing trend.

The RSI is now above 70, showing strong momentum but also suggesting there could be short-term pauses. Immediate support is at $68.58, with the next level at $66.00. If the price pulls back toward the rising trendline, buyers might step in.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $71.50 with a target of $74.09 and a stop below $68.50.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Outlook: $78 Break Eyes $84–$91 Zone

Brent crude closed near $77.87 after a strong daily gain that moved the price above $73.32 and toward the descending trendline resistance. This breakout now shifts attention to $78.83, the next resistance level.

If the price stays above this level, it could move toward $84.71, then $87.91 and $91.54. The price is now above the 50-day EMA and testing the 100-day EMA, which shows the trend is getting stronger.

RSI is moving up toward 70, showing strong momentum but also warning of possible short-term pullbacks. Support levels are at $73.32 and $69.71.

Trade idea: Buy above $78.90, target $84.70, stop below $73.30.