Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Tariff Risk and Surplus Outlook Cap Upside

Market Overview

Oil prices saw a modest rebound in early trading, with Brent crude rising 0.1% to $68.68 per barrel and WTI around $65.20. The uptick follows news of a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which eased some market concerns.

Despite the gains, oil remains under pressure, down 8% (Brent) and 8.85% (WTI) year-to-date. Analysts at ING caution that persistent tariff risks and the expected shift to a supply surplus later this year could weigh on prices in the coming months.

ING also notes that while a surplus appears likely, relatively low global inventories could help stabilize flat prices, offering some cushion against further declines.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures continue to trade under pressure, with prices holding near $3.233 after a sharp rejection from the $3.368 resistance level. The 50-EMA ($3.363) and 100-EMA ($3.404) are both sloping downward, confirming sustained bearish momentum.

Price action has established a series of lower highs, and the failure to reclaim the $3.287 support-turned-resistance is keeping sellers in control. Immediate support lies at $3.218; a clear break below this may expose the next downside targets at $3.149 and $3.082.

On the flip side, bulls need to regain $3.287 to attempt a recovery toward $3.368. However, as long as price stays beneath the EMAs and fails to form a higher high, bearish pressure is expected to persist.

Traders should watch for a clean break below $3.218 to confirm continuation lower or a reversal signal near the oversold levels.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil remains under bearish pressure, trading around $65.20 after failing to hold the $65.80 resistance zone. The pair is respecting a downward-sloping trendline and continues to face rejection below both the 50-EMA ($66.03) and 100-EMA ($66.50).

A bearish channel is clearly forming, with repeated lower highs and lower lows confirming the downtrend. Immediate support lies at $64.89; a break below this could expose $64.24 and $63.65 next. On the upside, bulls need a break above $65.80 to challenge $66.43 and $67.10.

Traders may watch for a breakout from this wedge for directional confirmation—either a clean bounce from $64.24 or a push above $66.00.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is consolidating below the $69.00 resistance, with the price hovering around $68.54. The 50-EMA ($68.88) and 100-EMA ($68.98) are acting as dynamic resistance, capping upside momentum. Price action is compressed between a descending trendline from the recent $70.77 high and an ascending trendline support near $68.21, forming a symmetrical triangle.

A break above $69.00 could expose $69.58 and $70.16 as the next resistance levels. On the downside, sustained selling below $68.21 may trigger a retest of $67.66 or $66.88. Short-term momentum remains neutral to bearish unless bulls reclaim the $69.00 handle with volume.