Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will Rising Stockpiles Derail Bullish Momentum?

Market Overview

Oil prices eased from recent highs on Wednesday despite support from reduced U.S.-China tariffs, with Brent and WTI hovering near two-week peaks. A 90-day tariff truce between the world’s largest economies—cutting U.S. import duties to 30% from 145% and China’s to 10% from 125%—temporarily boosted demand sentiment.

However, traders remained cautious ahead of U.S. Energy Information Administration data, following an unexpected 4.3 million-barrel build in crude inventories reported by the API.

Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainty from key producing regions continue to inject volatility into oil and natural gas forecasts heading into summer.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading at $3.595, slipping below the ascending trendline support after failing to hold above $3.612. This breakdown marks a key technical shift, as the price also trades below the 50 EMA ($3.654), suggesting bearish pressure is building.

Immediate support now sits at $3.529, and a close below that could open the door to $3.434. On the upside, $3.612 flips into near-term resistance, followed by $3.727. The recent rejection near $3.839 has established a clear lower high, raising the risk of a broader pullback.

For now, momentum favors sellers unless bulls reclaim the trendline with conviction. Traders should watch for either a bearish continuation toward $3.43 or a reclaim of $3.65 to consider fresh entries.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading around $63.29 on the 1-hour chart, consolidating after a sharp climb over the past few sessions. Price action remains within a well-defined rising channel, with the pivot point sitting at $62.81—right where price has been catching a bounce.

Immediate resistance is just ahead at $63.84, and a clear break above that could invite momentum toward $64.84 and possibly $66.04. On the flip side, if oil slips below $62.81, the next support level is at $61.69, a spot that previously acted as resistance and now aligns with the channel’s lower boundary.

The 50-period EMA at $62.52 is still rising, reinforcing short-term bullish sentiment. No 200 EMA is plotted on this timeframe, but momentum remains constructive. So long as price holds above $62.81, the trend favors the bulls—but a rejection at $63.84 without strong volume could trigger a brief pullback.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude oil is currently trading at $66.23, steadily climbing within a rising channel that’s been in place since the May 6 breakout. Price is holding above the pivot point at $66.09, a key level that aligns closely with both the channel’s lower trendline and the 50 EMA, now tracking at $65.40.

If price holds this zone, it keeps the door open for a retest of immediate resistance at $66.74, followed by the next ceiling at $67.60. But if Brent slips below $66.09, downside support rests at $64.63 and then $63.70.

The structure remains bullish for now, with no bearish reversal candles in sight and momentum intact. Until then, price action inside the channel favors dip-buying strategies with tight stops just below $66.00.