Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Above $101, Brent Holds $106.84 — Can NatGas Push Through $2.85?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Steady as Fundamentals Take Over

On May 13, 2026, crude oil trading was muted for the 30-plus day conditional U.S-Iran ceasefire, with small progress reported for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the war-related premium in crude, so evident in March and early April, appears to have been lifted and traders are now back to assessing the regular fundamentals.

Both crude contracts suggest a more even market for oil. With the U.S. production, OPEC+ supply, and damage recovery progress, crude markets are now in balance and there appears to be lower demand in some high cost locations. Natural gas markets also traded flat with plentiful storage data in the U.S. and Europe given the unseasonably mild temperatures. The truce in the region means there should be a more steady supply in the Gulf, which is contributing to softer international spot markets, and longterm fundamentals for LNG demand are positive in both Asia and Europe.

Crude oil futures and natural gas futures could continue to move in their respective bands as U.S. inventory reports and the next OPEC+ policy signals roll in. However, given the fragile nature of the truce, there remains a risk the war premium returns and energy markets get rattled again.

Natural Gas Futures Test the $2.85 Level and Descending Channel Resistance

Natural Gas futures are at $2.848 on the 2h NYMEX chart and has rebounded off of the $2.78 low with green candles taking back the red 50 period MA that was around $2.83. Current price action is respecting the lower white descending channel, however it has also produced bullish rejection wicks at the key Fib retracement confluence. RSI is now sitting above the 55 line, which indicates some short term momentum for price to move higher.

The most recent price action is also printing higher lows within a more recent short term base formation and price is also now respecting the blue trendline as support on the current move. The next key overhead resistance level to watch is at $2.85 followed by the current channel ceiling at $2.936. Volume is also helping to sustain this most recent price move as buyers continue to come into the contract at the lower side. The most recent price action has now taken back the $2.81 level which indicates an improvement in the market structure, while now fighting the multi-week descending trend.

Trade Idea: Buy $2.848 for a target of $2.85 with a stop at $2.81.

WTI Crude Oil Returns Above $101 and Defends Blue Channel Support

WTI crude Oil is at $101.54 on the 2h chart and has recovered from the $99.18 low with big green engulfing candles that take back the red 50 period MA around $100.65. Price is contained within the blue ascending channel from the mid-April lows, while printing a series of higher lows. The most recent bullish trend continuation price action has also rejected the white descending trendline that was put in at the April highs. Fib retracement of the May swing indicates that the 38.2% Fib retracement level at $100.65 has been defended.

RSI is now back above 52 and is not currently in overbought territory. Volume profile now has $100 as a new floor, and buying is now coming into the contract at the lower side. Above the current trading action, the overhead resistance now lies at $101.99 and next at $103 to $105 at the top of the channel. The market structure has now turned bullish above the $99.18 low and price is also now respecting the midline of the blue channel.

Trade Idea: Buy $101.50 for a target of $103.00 with a stop at $100.00.

Brent Crude Oil Holds at $106.84 and Ascending Channel Support

Brent crude oil is at $107.28 on the 2h chart and is holding at the lower line of the blue ascending channel, which was formed off of the $107.78 rejection in the last 5 sessions on price action. Price has tested the 0.382 Fib retracement level at $103.26 on the red candles and has produced green candle rejection wicks that indicate that the buying is still coming into the contract near the $106.50 levels. The most recent price action continues to print higher lows, and the red MA is still acting as support for price. RSI is hovering near the 50 line, indicating that it is not overly extended, but could also be interpreted as neutral to positive.

The next key support levels to watch are the 0.5 Fib retracement level at $105.55 and the current channel extension of $107.85 to $111.09. Volume profile now has $107 as the next key pivot level, with buying still coming into the contract in the event price declines back to this level. The up channel formed in April is still in effect as long as price stays above $103.24.

Trade Idea: Buy $107.25 for a target of $107.85 with a stop at $106.40.