Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Bounces Off $93 While Brent Tests $97 — NatGas Holding Firm?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Remain Balanced as Ceasefire Holds

On June 8, 2026, crude markets are still reeling from the conditional US-Iran truce. More than 10 weeks into the ceasefire and as oil tankers return to traversing the Straits of Hormuz, the truce is mostly still holding. Since the agreement was made, the geopolitical premium that triggered several of the widest moves in crude prices thus far in the year has been eliminated, and the market is essentially back to fundamentals.

Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).reflect a slightly brighter outlook for crude oil. US output is at record highs, and OPEC+ is on track to stick to its supply constraints. Meanwhile, new supply from Brazil, Guyana and Canada is climbing. These additional supply sources, along with the aforementioned supply constraints in the Middle East, have helped to keep the market reasonably well-balanced; however, volumes in the Middle East are not yet where they were before the onset of the war.

Finally, global demand appears to be tickling up, especially in Asia. However, demand in 2026 is still forecast to remain lackluster, as interest rates stay higher for longer, and consumer income across most developed markets remains squeezed, leading the global economy to grow only slowly over the foreseeable future.

Update on the natural gas fundamental analysis

Natural gas continues to trade quietly as inventory rebuilds, both in the US and Europe in light of an increasingly mild spring weather pattern. The truce also reduced pressure on the regional LNG supply chain and lowered spot international natural gas prices accordingly. The medium-to-longer term outlook, however, appears solid for natural gas consumption demand.

In the weeks ahead, US crude oil and refined products inventories and future policy decisions on supply levels by OPEC+ may be key for traders. Although the ceasefire has calmed the market thus far, it remains to be seen how long the truce will last.

Natural Gas Futures Dips to $3.166 – Blue Channel Retest on 2h

Price on the 2h NYMEX chart is $3.166. A red candle was able to move higher on the chart with wicks to a green close and reaction at the bottom of the red candles from the floor of the blue channel and near red 50 MA on the 2h chart. The close body size of green candle showed higher price action at the floor of the blue channel from May swing price lows near $2.978 on the 2h chart. The volume profile pivot floor was near $3.10 on the 2h chart.

The price will target the 2nd Fib level between $3.195 and $3.256 in the near future. The high on the swing from April. The price action turned bullish in the short term. The price is higher from $2.978 swing low price action on May lows. The price is above $3.10 on the current uptrend as it moved higher up a clean higher price uptrend. The price is higher in price on the swing price low and is holding as price bounces from minor lows.

Trade Idea: Buy $3.166 targeting $3.256, stop $3.10.

WTI Crude Oil Rebounds to $94.62 – Blue Channel Floor Defense on 2h

Price on the 2h chart is $94.62. Green candles continued to push price higher as they held firm on the floor of the blue channel near $93.42. There were wicks of bullish price action rejection and a green close body size at the bottom of the green candles on the 2h chart. Price broke out the range to the upside as it held above red 50 MA on the 2h near $94.00. The RSI is higher than 48 and there were no RSI overbought conditions on the 2h chart.

Price will target the 2nd Fib level between $96.00 and $97.00 in the near future. The high on the swing from May. The volume profile floor was at $93.42 with volume on price reaction at the bottom of green candle. A white line of trendline resistance was on the price action from April highs near $98.21.

The price action turned neutral to bullish in the short term. Price is still in the downtrend from $104 but the current uptrend on the 2h price action is a higher low price pattern. The price action on the green candle showed a clean price action higher and price reacted on the dips.

Trade Idea: Buy $94.62 targeting $96.00, stop $93.42.

Brent Crude Oil Advances to $97.48 – Channel Bounce on 2h

Price on the 2h chart is $97.48. Green candles were able to move higher on the chart from the bottom of the blue channel near $96.59 and red 50 MA on the 2h chart. Higher lows from the $93.49 was intact with the close body of green candle and price reaction on the dips. There was no RSI overbought condition on the 2h chart. RSI is above 50. The volume profile resistance was near $97.62 on the 2h chart.

The price will target the 2nd Fib level between $98.00 and $100.04 in the near future. The high on the swing from April. The price action turned neutral to bullish in the short term. Price is still in the downtrend from $110 but the current uptrend on the 2h price action is a higher low price pattern. Price is holding firm on the floor of the blue channel from April lows. The price action on the green candle showed a simple higher low price pattern as sellers had trouble to lower price on bounces from lower highs.

Trade Idea: Buy $97.48 targeting $98.00, stop $96.00.