Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Drops to $98.85 as Brent Tests $105 — NatGas Breakout Confirmed?

Oil and Natural Gas Markets Steady as Ceasefire Holds

The oil benchmarks were little changed today, May 20, 2026, as the tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran was going into 6+ weeks with tankers resuming passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The truce has reduced the risk premiums that caused such volatility in March and the beginning of April. Crude has returned to a more balanced market with supply/demand as key drivers.

Both WTI and Brent show a more balanced market for oil with US supply, OPEC+ and repair efforts stabilizing supply but not fully restoring Iranian and regional supply to normal. Demand remains slightly below normal, with Asia showing some recovery after the sharp price increase but emerging markets still wary of price increases.

The natural gas market remains steady with storage building healthily in the US and Europe as the spring weather is not too hot or cold. Ceasefire has reduced concerns of disruptions to LNG shipments from the Middle East while the longer term supply and demand picture remains intact in Asia and Europe.

Both natural gas and oil markets have been quiet as we await the next US reports on supply and demand and the next OPEC+ decisions. The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments as the truce in the Gulf is not a long term solution to these issues and will likely face new challenges in the future.

Natural Gas Futures increase to $3.038; Blue channel breakout gaining momentum

Natural Gas futures are trading at $3.038 on the 4h NYMEX timeframe as the recent green candle bodies were able to reclaim the red MA at $2.95 and have now pushed through the high of the prior swing price. Green candles continue to show price respecting the ascending white trendline with bullish continuation of price. The RSI has now pushed above 55 and continues in positive territory, confirming the momentum shift, while volume is backing price to the upside with seller absorption.

Price action is currently in a decisively bullish structure, sitting above $2.95 while making a series of higher lows within the channel. The next resistance is the $3.066 to $3.15 Fib extension level.

Trade Idea: Buy $3.038 target $3.15, stop $2.98.

WTI Crude Oil declines to $98.85; Blue channel breakdown intensifies

WTI is trading at $98.85 on the 2h chart as aggressive selling pressure pushed price through the red 50 MA located near $100.05. The move also took out blue ascending channel support anchored at May’s mid-month swing low. Bearish price action off the $102.62 local top formed an engulfing pattern, confirming distribution and the presence of lower highs and lower lows as price slides toward the $97.20 to $96.21 zone (Fib extension).

The RSI sits below 45, signaling a loss of bullish momentum without any oversold condition to generate a counter-trend bounce. Price action below $100 suggests a shift to bearish structure, while volume analysis identifies $100 to $102 as a fair value area that buyers can’t protect. A higher white ascending trendline anchored at April’s swing low will provide support near $96.50.

Trade Idea: Sell $98.85 target $97.20, stop $99.50.

Brent Crude Oil drops to $105.46; Channel retest in play

Brent Crude is trading at $105.46 on the 2h chart where red candles are testing the lower line of blue ascending trend channel as well as the red MA at $106.30. While higher lows from $103 low remain intact, the price structure has weakened in the lower time frames as the most recent highs have made lower highs.

RSI sits just above 48, indicating neutral-to-bearish momentum, while Fib retracement off the swing high/low made in May identifies support near $103.88. Volume analysis identifies $108 to $109 as an area of heavy supply, while price action below $106.30 suggests neutral-to-bearish structure. Price currently sits testing the lower blue trend line within the channel.

Trade Idea: Sell $105.46 target $103.88, stop $106.30.