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Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Under $92 While Brent Tests $94 — Will NatGas Extend Gains?
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Key Points:
- The US-Iran ceasefire has now held for over nine weeks with gradual resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- WTI crude slipped to $92.29 after breaking below the blue ascending channel floor and red 50-period MA.
- Brent crude held at $94.69, retesting the lower blue ascending channel line with neutral-to-bearish momentum.
- Natural Gas futures traded at $3.327, maintaining bullish continuation inside the blue ascending channel.
Oil and Natural Gas Markets Remain Balanced as Ceasefire Holds
As of June 5, 2026, crude markets traded flat thanks in part to a conditional ceasefire between the United States and Iran that is now over nine weeks old. Tankers were gradually resuming transit in the Strait of Hormuz. With this agreement putting much of the geopolitical risk premium that sparked wild price movements at the beginning of this year to rest, the market is more able to focus on conventional market fundamentals.
WTI and Brent are both indicating a global market that is becoming more balanced. With record high production from the US and a relatively stable production level from OPEC, alongside steady production increases from non OPEC producers in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, markets have stabilized somewhat, with full normalization of Iranian and regional supply remaining incomplete, and with overall global consumption growth for 2026 still projected to be moderate as Asian economies have picked up but developed countries are facing higher interest rates and consumers have become more cautious.
Prices for natural gas also saw quiet trading with healthy storage builds in the US and Europe with milder spring weather patterns in both markets over recent weeks. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire was also reducing geopolitical risk on LNG supply in the Middle East with lower spot prices. Long term Asian and European LNG demand is also still strong.
Market participants are keen to follow the next US inventory report as well as the next OPEC+ decision. Although markets have stabilized somewhat with the U.S.-Iran truce analysts suggest that it remains fragile, with any setbacks in talks potentially triggering renewed volatility in energy markets.
Natural Gas Futures Steady at $3.327 – Blue Channel Momentum on 4h
Natural gas futures are trading at $3.327 on the 4h timeframe for the NYMEX, as a set of green bullish continuation bars respects the blue channel and a red 50-period moving average at $3.20. The current bullish trend is trading a string of higher lows from a $2.978 swing. This lower support zone has buyer support to keep price from making a lower price low.
The RSI is trading near 52.0 indicating bullish price action. A white pivot point at $3.10 is indicating that this level may be able to act as support in a pullback. The next resistance level would likely be at the $3.377 to $3.463 Fib extension zone. Price action is trading bullish while consolidating in a large uptrend channel structure with higher highs and higher lows from the May lows. The price action structure is still trading higher highs and higher lows in a bullish price channel pattern.
Trade Idea: Buy $3.327 to $3.377, stop at $3.20.
WTI Crude Oil Slips to $92.29 – Blue Channel Breakdown Deepens on 4h
The WTI crude oil price is trading at $92.29 on the 4h timeframe after a set of red continuation bars broke price below the blue channel’s support and the red 50-period moving average around $94.00 and $94.90, respectively. The recent red bearish engulfing bars have lower lows with long lower wicks which signals a distribution of demand from the most recent swing. Price is moving further lower into the $90.66 to $89.14 Fib extension area after failing to break above the overhead resistance.
The relative strength index (RSI) is trading below 45.0 indicating bearish price action and a bounce may not happen yet as a result. Price is at a red volume profile level, $94.00 to $96.00, indicating a lack of fair value area in favor of sellers. Price is at the white resistance trendline connecting the May price highs, suggesting a lack of buying pressure in the area near $97.00.
The overall price structure is trading bearish below $94.00 while consolidating inside of a large downtrend channel with lower highs and lower lows starting from $104.00. The next level of resistance is still trading at the white pivot point at $94.90 in higher timeframes. The price action structure consists of a string of lower highs and lower lows in a bearish price channel pattern.
Trade Idea: Sell $92.29 to $90.66, stop at $93.50.
Brent Crude Oil Holds $94.69 – Blue Descending Channel Floor Tested on 4h
Brent Crude oil is trading at $94.69 on the 4h timeframe after a set of mixed red/green bars tested the blue channel’s support and red 50-period moving average around $96.59. There is evidence of higher price lows, from $93.49, that is currently holding while lower highs may be suggesting a weakness in price action structure. The RSI is hovering near 46, suggesting a neutral to bearish price momentum.
A red volume profile level at $97.62 is suggesting that price action would likely not reach that level in a fair value area, favoring sellers. There is a $93.45 to $92.54 Fib retracement in a price confluence in the immediate support zone.
The current price action structure is trading bearish below $97.62 while holding the blue channel’s support level from the April price highs and lower within a larger downtrend, with higher price lows starting from $110. Price action is rejecting off the resistance level with a clean rejection wick, signaling sellers still active on bounces.
Trade Idea: Sell $94.69 to $93.45, stop at $96.00.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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