Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – August 14, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas eased off its short term high but remains well above its recent trading range at 2.912 down 19 points ahead of the weekly EIA inventory report due in a few hours. Hotter than expected temperatures across the US helped support price moves, even though current prices are way below seasonal expectations. Conditions for high demand look to be settling in for the next two weeks, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston, in a note. “Bulls finally have something to look forward to.”

Natural-gas consumption rises in the summer when households and offices use more electricity to power air-conditioning units. Texas, where temperatures climbed above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, has already seen record demand for power in recent days, according to trade publications that track demand and prices.

Commodity Weather Group LLC on Wednesday reported a third straight day of warmer forecasts. It added more severe warmth, more than five degrees Fahrenheit above normal for next week from Pittsburgh and Washington up through Boston and Maine.

“The main…catalyst has been more supportive short-term temperature forecasts,” said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute, in a note.

AccuWeather US Forecast Outlook:

A hot dome of high pressure will dominate much of the country with widespread upper 80s to 100s, including all of Texas. The exceptions will be over the NW, Great Lakes, and NE as weather systems sweep through with showers, thunderstorms, and slightly cooler than normal temperatures. It will be most uncomfortable over eastern Texas and the South where high humidities will result in strong demand for cooling as the Heat Index exceeds 105F. Hot high pressure will begin to gain ground back over the northern US this weekend into next week; this will increase cooling national cooling demand from MODERATE-HIGH to HIGH.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)