Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – November 30, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas  tumbled 68 points to trade at a seasonal low of 2.232 after inventory on Wednesday jumped and winter heating days were reduced by warmer temperature forecasts. he U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday morning that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 9 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 20. Analysts were expecting a storage increase of around 4 billion cubic feet. The five-year average for the week is a withdrawal of around 36 billion cubic feet, and last year’s withdrawal for the week totaled 141 billion cubic feet.

The EIA data was released a day early due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Demand for natural gas is expected to be low to moderate as temperatures some 8 to 18 degrees warmer than normal are forecast for the eastern half of the U.S. In the West a strong storm is forecast to move into California, heading into the Rocky Mountain States by the weekend. The colder weather is expected to move east and south by the weekend, but lack of reinforcement from another cold blast from the north will moderate the effect of the storm system as it moves on.

Natural Gas Weekly Weather Outlook

November 25-Dec 1st: Warm high pressure will rapidly build out of Texas and the South the next few days, expanding across the Midwest and East with temperatures again warming 8-18°F above normal as highs reaches the 50s north to 70s south. As the East warms, the West will become cold as a strong weather system drops down the coast with rain and low elevation snow, including across California. A secondary cold blast will spill into the Rockies and Plains Thanksgiving Day and then spread south and east this weekend, although moderating due to the lack of reinforcing cold. Overall heating demand will be LOW-MODERATE over the coming week due to the milder East.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)