Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 21, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas fell by 28 points to reach 3.739 its lowest level this year as temperatures remained constant and inventories continued to grow.  When cold weather looms across the U.S., natural-gas prices usually rise. This year they are falling, after a record production boom nearly replenished stockpiles left at their lowest since 2003 by last winter’s epic freeze.

Prices for the fuel used to heat half of American homes fell to their lowest point of 2014 on Friday in intraday trading and are down 9.3% since Sept. 29 on speculation that further supply additions could lead to higher inventory.

Natural gas prices declined sharply this year from a high of nearly $7.7 an mmBtu in February, thanks to increased demand during an unusually cold winter last year, the Henry Hub spot price has fallen to $3.7 a unit. The natural gas futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) has declined nearly 42 per cent from about $6.5 in February to $3.8 now. Record shale gas output in the country and a four-fold rise in inventories during the March-October storage period dragged down prices.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that the natural gas inventory in the US surged to 3,299 billion cubic feet (bcf) as of October 10 from 822 bcf in March. Gas demand in the US is expected to increase in the coming months with the approaching winter season. But this year, the winter is forecast to be milder. This, along with continued growth expected in shale gas output and comfortable inventory position, should keep prices under check.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction

Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds

Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt

Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)

Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond

Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30

Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28

Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction

Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29

Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction

Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30

Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions

Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction

Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction

Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction

Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction

Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction

Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions

Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction