Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas continued to decline giving up 11 points to trade at 3.648 as US temperatures remain moderate, while traders
Analysis and Recommendations:
Natural Gas continued to decline giving up 11 points to trade at 3.648 as US temperatures remain moderate, while traders look ahead of the EIA official inventory report due later today. Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, likely warm enough so that consumers won’t use much natural gas for home heating. Long-term forecasts are largely predicting that cold winter weather won’t arrive before January and if that proves true, prices are likely to stay below $4 for week.
Demand is weak enough that producers could put a record amount of natural gas into winter storage for mid-October that is weighing heavily on traders. Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month, likely warm enough that consumers won’t use much natural gas for home heating
Record production and tepid demand have been pressuring the market since June. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is likely to report Thursday that producers added around 97 billion cubic feet of gas to stockpiles last week, according to the average forecast of 16 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That surplus is nearly 40% larger than the five-year average for that week of the year and would be the fourth-largest addition for a week in October dating to at least 1994, EIA data shows.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
WEEKLY
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
NZD |
CPI (QoQ) (Q2) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
AUD |
Business Confidence |
6 |
|
6 |
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Mfg. PMI |
50.4 |
50.3 |
50.2 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Mfg. PMI |
47.3 |
48.5 |
48.8 |
|
|
|
EUR |
French Services PMI |
48.1 |
48.2 |
48.4 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Mfg. PMI |
51.8 |
49.5 |
49.9 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Services PMI |
54.8 |
55.0 |
55.7 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.7 |
49.9 |
50.3 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Services PMI (Oct) |
52.4 |
52.0 |
52.4 |
|
|
|
GBP |
Mortgage Approvals |
39.3K |
41.5K |
41.4K |
||
|
GBP |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
||
|
GBP |
Core Retail Sales (YoY) |
3.1% |
3.4% |
4.4% |
||
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) |
2.7% |
2.8% |
3.7% |
||
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends |
|
-4 |
-4 |
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
282K |
264K |
|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
NZD |
Trade Balance (MoM) |
|
-700M |
-472M |
|
|
|
NZD |
Trade Balance (YoY) |
|
1,510M |
2,020M |
|
|
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
3.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (Sep) |
|
470K |
504K |
|
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales (MoM) |
|
-5.8% |
18.0% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond
Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30
Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28
Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction
Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29
Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction
Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30
Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions
Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction
Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction
Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction
Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction
Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction