Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

By:

Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 07:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas bounced around all day ahead of the EIA inventory later today. The commodity is trading at 3.786 staying afloat

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 31, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas bounced around all day ahead of the EIA inventory later today. The commodity is trading at 3.786 staying afloat even against the strong US dollar. Increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would spur production and investment, “outweighing” a modest price increase for consumers, according to a new study.

The Energy Department’s stat shop said on Wednesday that more natural gas shipments overseas would result in “economic gains,” but at a cost to consumers. “Increased LNG exports lead to increased natural gas prices,” the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its report.

But, gas markets in the U.S. would “balance in response to increased LNG exports” by increasing production. In turn, “increased energy production spurs investment, which more than offsets the adverse impact of somewhat higher energy prices,” the report states.

Updated weather forecasts showed an intensifying blast of cold weather in the coming days and a softening outlook for a warm front into mid-November, which could help drive demand for gas-fired heating. Weather forecasts showed a cold blast coming in more intensely than previously expected between now and Sunday. While it was previously centered on Chicago and the northern Midwest, new forecasts project it will reach all the way to the southern Gulf Coast states and catch much of the Eastern Seaboard as well. Meanwhile, prior forecasts for warm front into mid-November were scaled back.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	HIA New Home Sales	0.0%		3.3%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY)	9.0%	8.5%	9.4%
GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	0.5%	0.3%	-0.1%
GBP	MPC Member Cunliffe
EUR	Spanish GDP (QoQ)	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
EUR	German Unemployment	-22K	5K	9K
EUR	German Unemployment	6.7%	6.7%	6.7%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)		3.0%	4.6%
USD	GDP Price Index (QoQ)		2.0%	2.1%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		283K	283K
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Household Spending		-4.3%	-4.7%
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY)		3.0%	3.1%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)		2.5%	2.6%
AUD	PPI (YoY) (Q3)			2.3%
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)			-0.1%
AUD	Private Sector Credit		0.4%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Retail Sales		-1.0%	2.5%
EUR	French Consumer		-0.3%	-0.7%
EUR	Italian CPI (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.8%	0.8%
EUR	CPI (YoY) (Oct)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate		11.5%	11.5%
USD	Core PCE Price Index			1.5%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Aug)		0.0%	0.0%
USD	Chicago PMI (Oct)		60.0	60.5
USD	Michigan Consumer		86.4	86.4