Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 7, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Natural Gas fell 124 points to trade at 3.915 as cold temperatures across the US did not develop and the long term forecast

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis October 7, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Natural Gas fell 124 points to trade at 3.915 as cold temperatures across the US did not develop and the long term forecast called for slightly higher temperatures. As shale production continues to gain market attention its production continues to climb. Supply of US shale gas alone can cover global demand this year, and unless OPEC countries reduce their production, or unless a fresh geopolitical concern occurs, the best estimate now is a bearish market,” said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Mitsubishi in Tokyo.

With seasonal demand expected to pick-up in late October/early November, now is the perfect time to take a look at the natural gas futures market.

Weekly November natural gas futures tried to breakout to the upside last week, but failed to attract enough buying interest to complete the move. The strength early in the week was created by a forecast for below-normal temperatures across the high demand areas of the U.S. The rally failed and the market broke when the forecast was changed to normal temperatures.

This type of price action is typical for October because temperatures and weather conditions often shift from bullish to bearish during this time period. Since it is fall in the U.S., this type of temperature fluctuation should be expected because the season is usually neither too hot nor too cold.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

Natural Gas Weekly Update
Release Schedule: Thursday between 2:00 and 2:30 p.m. (Eastern Time)

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Release Schedule: Thursday at 10:30 (Eastern Time) (schedule)

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
EUR	German Factory Orders	-5.7%	-2.5%	4.9%
CAD	Ivey PMI		53.0	50.9

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Currency

JPY	Monetary Policy Statement
AUD	Cash Rate
AUD	RBA Rate Statement
JPY	BOJ Press Conference
CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves
GBP	Halifax HPI m/m
CHF	CPI m/m
CHF	Retail Sales y/y
GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m
GBP	BOE Credit Conditions Survey
CAD	Building Permits m/m
GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate
USD	JOLTS Job Openings