Natural Gas News: 52-Week Moving Average Sets the Tone as Weather Warms

Natural Gas Ends Higher on the Week, but Supply and Weather Trends Cap Upside

U.S. natural gas futures finished higher last week, lifted by a smaller-than-average storage build and a burst of buying tied to early-week cold weather forecasts. However, the market failed to sustain momentum into the weekend as traders grew cautious on softening demand prospects and rising production levels.

December natural gas futures settled at $4.315, up $0.191 or +4.63%. While the gain marked a second consecutive weekly advance, the upside faded after prices stalled below key resistance and forecast models turned warmer.

Is Weather Still Driving the Market or Losing Influence?

Early-week model revisions showing a strong cold front across the western and northern U.S. for November 9–13 helped trigger fresh buying interest. Forecast updates from Atmospheric G2 also increased expectations for heating demand in the eastern half of the country through mid-month.

But by Friday, confidence in sustained cold faded. New forecasts projected above-normal temperatures across most of the Lower 48 through November 21, curbing heating-related demand and easing pressure on storage.

Do Production and Storage Fundamentals Still Dominate the Narrative?

Production remains the market’s primary headwind. Lower-48 dry gas output held near 110 Bcf/day all week — roughly 8–9% above year-ago levels. LNG exports remained firm around 17 Bcf/day, helping tighten balances slightly, but not enough to offset elevated domestic supply.

The latest EIA report showed a +33 Bcf injection, in line with expectations but below the five-year average of +42 Bcf. Total inventories now stand at 3,915 Bcf — 4.3% above the seasonal average and slightly higher than a year ago, reinforcing a well-supplied market heading into the second half of November.

Will the Market Break Lower or Find Support Near-Term?

Technically, the weekly trend turned up after buyers cleared the previous swing high at $4.211, generating enough momentum to push through the intermediate pivot at $4.315. However, the rally stalled at $4.420 — essentially the 52-week moving average at $4.413, a level many traders use to gauge long-term direction.

Without a fresh catalyst, bulls appeared hesitant to chase prices higher. Strong output, ample storage, and tempering demand forecasts continue to cap upside potential.

Short-Term Forecast: Bearish

Fundamentals heading into next week tilt bearish. With unseasonably warm weather dampening heating demand and production showing no signs of slowing, sellers may regain control.

From a technical perspective, trader reaction to the 52-week moving average at $4.413 will likely determine the next move. A sustained breakout could open the door toward $4.676 to $4.931. Failure to hold above $4.315 would raise the odds of a pullback into $3.903.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.