Natural Gas News: Bearish Sentiment Builds on Forecasted 119 Bcf Storage Injection

EIA Storage Build Pressures U.S. Natural Gas Futures as Traders Eye Technical Support Levels

U.S. natural gas futures slipped Thursday morning, with traders reacting to downside momentum following Wednesday’s rejection at the key $3.438 pivot. Market participants are bracing for another larger-than-normal storage build in the weekly EIA report, reinforcing a bearish near-term bias.

Can the 200-Day Moving Average Hold Under Pressure?

Futures are edging lower with prices threatening the 200-day moving average at $3.170. A decisive break below this level would signal growing seller conviction. However, stronger support lies below at $3.098 and $3.035, both of which have recently attracted aggressive dip-buying. To push through this zone, bears will likely need a significant volume surge—something that has yet to materialize.

If the downside holds, the rebound path is clearly mapped. A break above $3.438 would put the 50-day moving average at $3.700 in play, with further resistance at $3.733. Breaching that level could open the door for a run toward $4.062, making $3.438 the key battleground for both sides in the coming sessions.

EIA Storage Report Forecasted to Beat Seasonal Norms Again

Thursday’s EIA report is widely expected to show a build of +119 Bcf for the week ending May 16, significantly above the five-year average of +87 Bcf. If confirmed, this would follow last week’s +110 Bcf injection, further weighing on sentiment. Inventory levels now sit 2.6% above their five-year average, despite being 14.6% lower year-on-year. These data continue to suggest ample supply heading into summer.

The bearish tone isn’t limited to U.S. markets. European gas storage was at 45% capacity as of May 18, compared to a five-year seasonal average of 55%, further reinforcing global supply adequacy even as the continent prepares for peak summer demand.

Will Seasonal Weather Trends Help Bulls Recover Control?

Short-term demand remains muted. Forecasts for May 21–27 point to a mild pattern across the Midwest and East, with highs in the 50s to 70s and even 40s in some areas. The West and South remain hotter, but not enough to drive significant national demand. Looking forward, some models suggest a warming trend by early June, but confidence in that outlook remains limited given the timeframe.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook Until Support Break or Weather Shift

Unless bulls can retake the $3.438 pivot, the path of least resistance remains lower. Elevated storage builds and mild weather imply limited upside for now. A break below $3.035 would further cement short-term bearish momentum. Traders should monitor weather shifts and EIA surprises for potential catalysts, but current conditions favor sellers.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.