Natural Gas News: Cold Forecasts, LNG Strength Have Traders Eyeing 52-Week Average

LNG Demand and Cold Forecasts Spark Rally, But Supply Still Capping Gains

Natural gas futures ended the week higher, lifted by record LNG demand and early signs of colder weather in December models. While prices briefly surpassed $4.15 intraday on Friday, fundamentals continue to limit follow-through, with high production and elevated storage preventing a sustained bullish shift.

December futures posted a weekly gain of $0.129, or 3.23%, settling near $4.03 after trading between a low of $3.752 and a high of $4.157. The move marks a notable recovery off recent lows, though upside conviction remains fragile without stronger support from fundamentals.

Technically, the market is building within an elongated support base and closed above the midpoint of the $4.211 to $3.595 short-term range, with $3.903 now acting as new support.

The first target for bulls is the swing high at $4.211, followed by an intermediate pivot at $4.336 and major resistance at the 52-week moving average of $4.404. A breakout above the 52-week average would shift momentum decisively, with the long-term pivot at $4.676 as the next objective.

In the near term, rallies are likely to be sold into the pivot and moving average resistance zone. But a confirmed breakout supported by bullish fundamentals would change the game.

Can LNG Demand Drive a Structural Shift in Sentiment?

Export demand remains a key support pillar. LNG feed gas flows reached a record 16.7 Bcf/day on Thursday, helping reinforce price strength despite soft near-term weather. Weekly flows dipped slightly, but the consistency of strong LNG offtake is tightening balances at the margin. European storage at 83% is slightly below the five-year norm and continues to support U.S. export demand. Pipeline flows to Mexico remain firm but aren’t strong enough alone to absorb domestic oversupply.

Is Cold Weather Finally Providing Support?

Weather has been a limiting factor in recent weeks, but models turned colder for the eastern U.S. between November 9–13. Atmospheric G2 and NatGasWeather both highlighted increasing heating demand potential in that window, helping justify stronger buying late in the week. Still, early November remains warmer-than-normal across much of the country, which could cap short-term heating demand. Traders are looking for consistency in colder forecasts before pricing in sustained weather-driven support.

Does Elevated Production Still Dominate the Outlook?

Dry gas output remains near record highs. Thursday’s BNEF estimate placed production at 107.1 Bcf/day, up 3.7% year-over-year. The rig count remains elevated at 121, pointing to continued upstream momentum. The EIA’s 2025 outlook of 107.14 Bcf/day reinforces expectations for a supply-heavy environment, regardless of incremental demand gains.

Are Storage Trends Providing a Ceiling for Bulls?

The latest EIA report showed a 74 Bcf injection, matching expectations but above the five-year average of 67 Bcf. Inventories are now 4.6% above seasonal norms and 0.6% higher than last year, underscoring that the market remains well-supplied heading into winter.

Short-Term Forecast: Bullish with Caution

The near-term bias tilts bullish, supported by record LNG feed gas volumes and emerging cold signals into mid-November. However, without sustained colder trends and with storage and production still elevated, upside remains constrained. Bulls need stronger fundamental backing to extend gains meaningfully.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.