Natural Gas News: Futures Aim for $3.730 as Heat and LNG Demand Drive Market Today

Natural Gas Futures Climb as Heat, LNG Demand Tighten Outlook

U.S. natural gas futures extended their rally for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, supported by scorching weather forecasts and steady LNG export activity.

August Nymex futures surged 1.64% on Tuesday to settle at $3.544, following Monday’s 4.59% gain. Traders are now eyeing key resistance at $3.730 and closely watching the 200-day and 50-day moving averages near $3.800.

At 12:22 GMT, Natural Gas is trading $3.562, up $0.039 or +1.11%.

Will Heat-Driven Demand Push Prices Past the $3.730 Pivot?

Warmer-than-normal temperatures remain the primary catalyst behind the rally. Forecasts from NatGasWeather show widespread highs in the upper 80s to low 100s across key regions like California, the Southwest, and Texas over the next 8–15 days.

Elevated power burns tied to strong air conditioning usage are driving utilities to increase natural gas consumption.

The Edison Electric Institute reported a 1.0% year-over-year increase in total U.S. electricity output for the week ended July 5, highlighting the sector’s growing appetite for gas.

How Are LNG Exports and Production Balancing the Market?

LNG export flows remain near record levels, supporting prices despite softer overall demand data.

Estimated net flows to U.S. LNG terminals stood at 15.2 Bcf/d on Monday, only slightly lower on a weekly basis.

Meanwhile, Lower 48 dry gas production continues to hover near 107.0 Bcf/d, up 3.0% year-over-year, offering a steady supply base.

Domestic demand, however, dipped to 79.5 Bcf/d on Tuesday, down 6.5% from the prior year, tempering some of the bullish momentum.

Is Storage Still a Concern After the Latest EIA Print?

The latest EIA report added fuel to the rally. Storage for the week ended July 4 rose by just 53 Bcf—below the 61 Bcf consensus and exactly in line with the five-year average.

While inventories are still 6.1% above seasonal norms, they are 6.0% lower year-over-year, which keeps a mild bullish tilt in place.

Traders are also monitoring European storage levels, now at 61% full versus a 71% five-year seasonal norm—another supportive signal for U.S. exports.

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Momentum Intact Above Key Technical Levels

The near-term technical setup leans bullish, especially if prices can hold above the short-term pivot at $3.574 and challenge the $3.730 resistance.

Continued heat, resilient LNG demand, and below-consensus storage builds support higher prices. However, gains may stall if production remains elevated and domestic demand stays soft.

A breakout above the $3.798–$3.800 zone could open the door to a further leg up.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.