Natural Gas News: Futures Push Higher, Eyeing Pivots and 50-Day MA—But Where’s the Breakout Catalyst?

Natural Gas Futures Hold Gains but Struggle at Technical Ceiling

U.S. natural gas futures edged higher Friday but remained capped beneath a cluster of technical resistance levels, limiting upside momentum despite supportive supply data and a modest three-day winning streak. Traders are closely watching the $3.261 resistance and the 50-day moving average at $3.325, which are shaping up as the next potential catalysts for a breakout.

At 11:46 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.244, up $0.049 or +1.53%.

Will Technical Resistance at the 50-Day MA Stall the Rally?

Prices have been pressing into a key resistance zone between $3.238 and $3.261. A confirmed close above $3.261 could open the door to a test of the 50-day moving average at $3.325—a widely watched trend signal.

If bulls can clear this level, momentum may carry the market to main swing tops at $3.459 and $3.489, with a further ceiling at $3.529. However, failure to breach these thresholds risks reinforcing selling pressure.

Support on the downside is seen at $3.063 and a broader band from $2.986 to $2.938. The secondary higher bottom at $3.063 signals buyer interest, adding a slight bullish tilt to the setup.

EIA Storage Build Matches Forecasts—Is It Enough to Sustain Gains?

Thursday’s EIA report showed a 75 Bcf build for the week ending September 19, broadly in line with consensus expectations of 74 Bcf and slightly below the five-year average of 76 Bcf. With inventories now sitting 6.1% above the five-year norm, traders found little new directional fuel from the data. Still, the report was not bearish enough to derail recent gains, extending the current winning streak to three sessions.

Weather and Supply Data Offer Mixed Signals for Demand Outlook

Near-term weather models are bearish for demand. NatGasWeather projects “low to very low” national demand through October 1, with mild temperatures across most of the U.S. Meanwhile, NOAA forecasts have shifted cooler for the East and South, reducing power burns for air conditioning.

Two tropical systems in the Atlantic—Humberto and another near Puerto Rico—remain wildcards, but for now, present limited impact risk.

On the supply side, lower-48 dry gas production hit 107.7 Bcf/day Thursday, up 6.1% year-on-year. LNG export flows remain robust at 15.7 Bcf/day, with power demand showing modest strength—electricity output rose 2.3% y/y last week, according to Edison Electric Institute.

Bullish Momentum Faces Technical and Weather Headwinds

Despite firm support at $3.063 and three consecutive daily gains, the rally remains tentative. The inability to pierce key resistance levels—especially the 50-day moving average—keeps bulls cautious.

With production running near record highs and national weather demand projected to stay weak in the near term, the market may struggle to find a sustained catalyst.

Until prices break and hold above the 50-day moving average, the outlook leans neutral to slightly bullish, with upside potential capped by lackluster demand and strong supply.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.