Natural Gas News: Weather Forecast Lifts Demand but Market Stalls Below 200-Day Chart Level

Natural Gas Rally Stalls at Resistance as Traders Watch Cold Front and Supply Pressures

U.S. natural gas futures are trading lower late Friday morning, retracing Thursday’s weather-driven gains after stalling near a key resistance level. The December Nymex contract is pulling back after briefly testing $4.420 yesterday, with sellers stepping in just below the 200-day moving average at $4.454.

The market had jumped 3% on Thursday following a smaller-than-average 33 Bcf storage build and a colder weather outlook. But with no breakout above the key technical ceiling, prices are slipping as traders reassess near-term fundamentals.

At 14:28 GMT, December Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.330, down $0.027 or -0.62%.

Will Cold Weather Sustain the Rally or Fizzle Out?

Forecasts remain supportive on the demand side. NatGasWeather is calling for a strong cold shot to hit the western and northern U.S. from Sunday through Tuesday, with lows dipping into the upper 10s and 30s. Atmospheric G2 also revised its forecast colder for the eastern U.S. in the November 11–15 window, raising expectations for early-season heating demand.

Despite these developments, Friday’s market tone is cautious. The weather-driven move looks vulnerable without confirmation from price action, particularly after bulls failed to clear the 200-day average. Until traders see follow-through, resistance remains a major hurdle.

Are Supply Fundamentals Overpowering Weather Tailwinds?

Supply continues to act as a headwind. Lower-48 dry gas production hit 110.1 Bcf/day Thursday, up 8.4% year-over-year, according to BNEF. LNG export flows improved slightly to 17 Bcf/day, but production gains are outpacing demand.

Storage levels remain robust at 3,915 Bcf — 4.3% above the five-year average. Thursday’s +33 Bcf injection was on target with estimates, but still reflects lingering oversupply for this time of year. Meanwhile, the number of active U.S. gas rigs climbed by 4 to a 2.25-year high of 125, further supporting a production-heavy outlook into year-end.

Is a Technical Pullback Already Underway?

The failure to break $4.454 now has traders watching for signs of short-term weakness. A drop below the pivot at $4.336 would confirm selling pressure. Deeper support levels to monitor include $4.192 — a recent swing low — followed by $4.086.

With the 50-day moving average still well below at $3.940, “buy the dip” sentiment remains intact longer-term. But in the near term, a corrective pullback is gaining traction.

Short-Term Forecast: Bearish Tilt

Until buyers can clear the $4.454 level with conviction, the path of least resistance appears lower. Cold weather remains a potential catalyst, but elevated production and firm storage levels are capping upside for now. Price action into the close will be critical for next week’s tone.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.