Natural Gas News: Weather-Led Rally Stalls Beneath 200-Day Moving Average Resistance

Natural Gas Pauses After Rally as Traders Eye Weather and Resistance Zone

U.S. natural gas futures are taking a breather midweek, slipping slightly but holding inside Tuesday’s wide range. After tagging $4.396 — a seven-month high — on cold-weather enthusiasm, prices are hesitating just below a trio of major resistance points: the long-term pivot at $4.336, the 200-day moving average at $4.457, and Tuesday’s intraday high. Buyers have work to do. Until they punch through, the door is cracked open for sellers to reassert.

At 13:53 GMT, December Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.295, down $0.048 or -1.11%.

Can Cold Weather Keep the Bid Alive?

The latest rally has been driven almost entirely by colder U.S. weather forecasts, with the November 9–13 period now looking chillier across the southern half of the country. Traders stepped in ahead of that, pushing December futures into fresh territory — but this morning’s fade suggests some are starting to fade the run, or at least lock in profits.

On Tuesday, demand ticked up modestly to 77.4 bcf/day, up 3.7% year over year. But the real heat has come from LNG exports, which hit a record 17.2 bcf/day. That’s a weekly jump of over 9% and keeps the market tight on the margin — especially if cold weather sparks residential and commercial demand at the same time.

Storage Still Telling a Bearish Story

While weather is helping bulls, storage is helping no one. Last week’s +74 bcf build came in-line, but still above the five-year average. Inventories sit 4.6% above that seasonal norm, and year-on-year storage is still in positive territory. Bottom line: the cushion is still there, even if the calendar is turning.

Production is another lid. At 110.2 bcf/day, dry gas output is running 8.5% above last year. Drilling is rising too — the latest Baker Hughes count put active rigs at 125, the highest since early 2023. Simply put, supply isn’t blinking.

Is This Just a Pause, or the Start of a Pullback?

Technically, the market has hit a wall. Unless buyers can punch through the resistance zone between the $4.336 pivot and the 200-day moving average at $4.457 with conviction, bulls risk losing momentum. The first nearby downside marker sits at $4.074 — a 50% retracement level traders are watching.

Sentiment remains constructive thanks to weather and export strength, but positioning is stretched, and supply fundamentals haven’t gone away. If colder forecasts hold or deepen, buyers could press through resistance. But for now, the move feels tired.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Bearish

Unless the market can break above the 200-day with follow-through, the current setup favors a pullback. A failure at resistance could trigger selling down to the $4.07 handle. Traders are still leaning bullish on weather — but bulls need to show up fast, or risk losing the narrative.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.