Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Rebound as Oil Outlook Improves on Rising Geopolitical Risk

Light crude oil futures finished higher on Friday, offering bullish traders a constructive setup near a multi-month low in the February 2026 contract. The rebound followed Tuesday’s test of $54.89, where short-covering lifted prices toward $56.85 and established a key 50% retracement level at $55.87. That level now serves as the short-term pivot guiding directional bias in crude oil news today.

Oil Prices Forecast Hinges on the 50% Pivot and 50-Day Moving Average

Friday’s trade held above the 50% level at $55.87, creating a potential secondary higher bottom that traders will monitor closely. A sustained move through $56.85 would allow the market to advance toward a pair of 50% retracement targets between $57.51 and $58.07.

Beyond those targets, the primary trend indicator—the 50-day moving average at $58.60—remains the dominant resistance marker for oil prices projections.

Sellers retain the advantage only if futures fall back below $55.87, which would shift attention toward Tuesday’s low at $54.89 and the longer-term $54.71 level.

Geopolitical Stressors Add Support as Venezuela Blockade Intensifies

Fundamental conditions leaned supportive as traders evaluated potential disruption from a U.S. effort to block Venezuelan tankers. The possibility of shipping constraints helped reinforce prices while markets awaited updates on Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates highlighted crude’s ability to hold above the week’s lows while traders track developments surrounding both the Venezuelan shipping situation and diplomatic negotiations.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled that Washington is not concerned about tension with Russia regarding Venezuela, while President Donald Trump kept all options open. Venezuela authorized two unsanctioned cargoes to China, while several sanctioned tankers linked to Russia either stopped or redirected, according to tracking data. Additional U.S. sanctions on associates of Nicolas Maduro added expectations of tighter export enforcement from a nation supplying roughly 1% of global oil.

Ukraine Expands Strikes as Tensions Deepen Around Shipping

Ukraine’s first aerial drone strike on a Russian “shadow fleet” tanker in the Mediterranean underscored rising risks surrounding Russian oil movements. At the same time, European Union leaders approved a €90 billion loan package to support Ukraine’s defense. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected compromise proposals and criticized the EU for attempts to seize Russian assets, dampening hopes for meaningful progress in peace efforts.

U.S. Output Signals Influence Oil Prices Projections

The U.S. rig count in the Permian Basin declined by three to 246—its lowest level since August 2021—raising concerns about future output. Reduced drilling activity adds a supportive element to oil prices forecast scenarios, particularly as geopolitical stressors elevate risk premiums.

Market Forecast: Near-Term Bias Turns Moderately Bullish

With futures holding above the $55.87 pivot and geopolitical uncertainties lending support, the near-term outlook turns moderately bullish. A sustained break through $56.85 would strengthen momentum toward $57.51–$58.07, while a move back under $55.87 would negate this setup and refocus the market on $54.89 and $54.71.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.