Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Points to $2.74 Target Before Recovery

Natural Gas Slides to New Pullback Low

Natural gas continued its downward trend on Monday, hitting a new low of $2.80. Trading remains near session lows at the time of writing, suggesting a daily close in a similarly weak position. A close below the prior retracement low of $2.86 will confirm the breakdown. Meanwhile, resistance at the 20-Day moving average proved firm, with Monday’s high of $2.95 marking the second failed test in as many sessions and setting the stage for more aggressive selling.

Breakdown Below Fibonacci Confluence

The decline takes natural gas further below its 20-Day moving average, reinforcing the bearish break that began late last week. Importantly, support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 100% measured move of a falling ABCD pattern, both near $2.84, has failed. A daily close under that level strengthens the bearish case, targeting the next confluence zone around $2.74, where the 78.6% retracement and 127.2% ABCD projection align.

Also in play is the falling trend channel, where the centerline has previously acted as a reaction level. With recent swing highs capped at the channel’s upper quarter line, momentum suggests further weakness until a more durable base forms.

Risk of Deeper Weakness Before Recovery

Although the near-term picture leans bearish, there are technical reasons to anticipate an eventual recovery. Four weeks ago, natural gas completed a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick that closed at a three-week high, indicating potential underlying demand from the $2.62 swing low. This leaves open the possibility that the current pullback may mark a C point in a broader rising ABCD pattern.

For that bullish case to gain traction, natural gas would need to rally above the recent lower swing high of $3.16, thereby shifting momentum. Until then, risk remains tilted lower, with traders watching $2.74 as the next potential pivot zone.

Outlook

Natural gas is in the midst of a bearish continuation, confirmed by multiple failed support levels and intensifying momentum. While near-term risks point toward $2.74, the market may be approaching a zone that could eventually support a rebound attempt.

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