Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver Analysis as US Freight Collapses and Manufacturing Slows

Freight Collapse and Manufacturing Stress Boost Safe-Haven Demand

The U.S. goods economy is flashing red. Real-time data from FreightWaves shows long-haul freight volumes are down 30% year-over-year. This includes industrial shipments tied to energy, autos, housing, and manufacturing. According to FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller, the decline mirrors levels last seen during the global financial crisis.

Moreover, retail freight remains flat, while industrial weakness dominates the picture. The chart below shows that the Manufacturing PMI has contracted for eight consecutive months. Meanwhile, 70% of manufacturers reported price increases in October.

Trump’s tariffs are pushing up wholesale prices without stimulating demand. These cost pressures now threaten a large number of jobs tied to long-haul freight and cyclical goods production.

This backdrop supports higher gold (XAU) prices. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against recession and uncertainty. When industrial activity contracts while inflation pressures persist, it creates the perfect storm for safe-haven flows into gold.

Jobs Stalling and Services Inflation Limit Fed’s Response

October’s job data adds another layer of uncertainty. The chart below shows that ADP reported just 42,000 new private-sector jobs. Immigration slowdowns and data adjustments have revised previous gains lower.

Meanwhile, job openings remain near the levels seen in early 2020, indicating a weakening demand for labour.

The chart below shows that the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4%. Despite this increase, the employment sub-index indicates contraction. Moreover, inflation has picked up in the services sector.

This limits the Federal Reserve’s options. If the Fed cuts rates, it may worsen inflation. However, if it hikes rates, it risks collapsing already fragile cyclical sectors.

Gold benefits from this policy trap. It serves as a hedge when monetary tools lose effectiveness. With manufacturing shrinking, service prices rising, and job growth stalling, the Fed’s hands are tied. This uncertainty strengthens gold’s appeal as a long-term store of value.

Gold Technical Analysis

The weekly chart for spot gold shows that the price has reached strong long-term support around the $3,890 level. It then consolidated at higher levels throughout the week, helping to stabilise momentum. This support aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern.

A break below this level could open the door to further downside toward the $3,800 to $3,700 region. However, if gold holds above $3,900, the price will likely attempt to retest the $4,400 range. A breakout above $4,400 would signal the potential for a much stronger move in 2026.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating after breaking below the ascending broadening wedge pattern. However, this consolidation has repeatedly failed to break below the $3,900 level, which strengthens bullish momentum.

A break above $4,050 would be a bullish signal and could pave the way for the $4,200 region. On the other hand, a break below $3,900 would be negative in the short term and may lead to further downside, potentially reaching the $3,700 to $3,800 range.

Silver Technical Analysis

The weekly chart for spot silver (XAG) shows that the price is consolidating after hitting strong support around the $45.50 level, marked by the red dotted trendline. After touching this support level, the price has stabilised above it.

A break below $45 would open the door to further downside toward the $41 to $42 region. However, a break above $49.30 would be a bullish signal and could lead to additional upside toward the $53 range.

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that the price is consolidating after breaking below the ascending broadening wedge pattern and is now trading below the $49.30 level.

Since silver has held above the $45.50 support and continues to consolidate within a bullish structure, a break above $49.30 could open the door for further upside. Overall, the silver price remains strongly bullish, and the current consolidation suggests the metal is preparing for additional gains in 2026.