Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: New Record $4,526 – Short-Term Weakness After Target

Wednesday’s Holiday Session

Gold hit a new high of $4,526 on Wednesday during a shortened holiday session. Although a new high was reached, gold showed short-term weakness with a closing below Tuesday’s high and slightly below Tuesday’s closing price. It shouldn’t mean much unless there is a drop below today’s low of $4,448 followed by a dip below Tuesday’s low of $4,430. Indecision was seen by the narrow range and an opening and closing price near each other. But that could be attributed to lower pre-holiday volume.

Measured Move Completion

It is important to note that an initial short-term upside target at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $4,516 was satisfied. What quickly followed was a bearish intraday reversal and an indecisive close. This could lead to the first pullback following a breakout to record highs on Monday. Or it may lead to a pause before the $4,526 high is taken out. A 161.8% projected target at $4,578 is the next higher decision area. Above there is a price zone marked by two measures at $4,664 and $4,687. The first level is a 350% long-term extended measured move, followed by a 161.8% extension of the most recent bearish correction in October.

Pullback Dynamics

The characteristics of the first pullback following new record highs this week should help assess momentum following the breakout. Key support is represented by the 10-day moving average that is currently at $4,360. It is soon to cross above the prior trend high at $4,381, which also represents a potential support area. A breakout above $4,381 triggered the continuation of the bull trend and once it is shown as an area of support, the next likely direction is higher. Stronger demand is indicated by a shallower pullback that finds support and then turns back higher prior to reaching the $4,381 level and down to the 10-day line.

Bullish Year-End Position

Gold is on track to finish the year and month in a bullish position, with buyers in control. Dynamic support was tested more than a month recently leading to a bullish breakout. These are all bullish signs that suggest further upside following periods of weakness or uncertainty.

Outlook

Gold’s push to $4,526 satisfied the immediate 127.2% target but met indecision and mild selling in the holiday session. A shallow hold above the rising 10-day $4,360 and $4,381 prior high favors continuation toward $4,578–$4,687; deeper weakness below $4,430 risks a more meaningful pullback while the larger bull trend and year-end strength remain supportive.

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