Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bear Flag Reasserts Control Below 10-Day MA

Thursday’s Price Action

Gold teased bulls early Thursday, November 06, 2025, spiking to a three-day high of $4,020 and briefly reclaiming the falling 10-day average ($3,989). Sellers crushed the move within hours, driving price to a $3,964 low-of-day closing reflecting a failed breakout of the line and confirming it as dynamic resistance.

Bear Flag Status

Tuesday’s initial bear-flag breakdown has produced almost no follow-through yet, but today’s rejection at the flag’s top (10-day MA) keeps bears in control. A drop below today’s $3,964 low triggers a second breakdown signal; confirmation arrives beneath Tuesday’s $3,929 low, with the $3,886 swing low as the next domino.

Primary Support Zone

The 50-day average ($3,867 and rising) converges with the 50% retracement at $3,846, forming the highest-probability bounce zone. Given the sluggish bearish momentum, the 50-day line may climb above the $3,886 swing low before price ever reaches it, tightening the support pocket further.

Deeper Targets if Support Fails

Should $3,846–$3,867 crack, the 61.8% Fibonacci at $3,720 enters play alongside the rising channel centerline—both logical destinations after mid-October’s false bullish breakout above the same channel.

Upside Validation

Bulls reclaim near-term momentum only with a rally back above the 10-day average and today’s $4,020 high. That would open a retest of the 20-day line at $4,083 (last week’s bounce stalled at $4,046, well short of target).

Weekly Inside Week Setup

With two trading days remaining, gold is on track to close as an inside week. Inside weeks following extreme moves routinely precede sharp directional breaks; next week’s resolution above or below this week’s $3,929–$4,020 range will dictate the next swing.

Outlook

Continued chop is expected until the 50-day average and 50% retracement provide support near $3,846–$3,867. That confluence, combined with the false bullish channel breakout in mid-October and the rising channel centerline, marks a high-probability area for a bullish reversal. Failure there targets the 61.8% level at $3,720. On the weekly chart, an inside week setup positions gold for a potential breakout next week. Hold above the recent swing low at $3,886 maintains the broader uptrend; a decisive rally above the 10-day average and $4,020 high targets the 20-day line at $4,083.

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