Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakout Above $3.18 Fuels Rally

Chart Action: Buyers Seize Control

Buyers rushed back into natural gas on Monday, pushing prices to a daily high of $3.40 with firm control. As of now, trading sticks near the highs, signaling strong demand. The session opened with an upside gap, and the day’s low of $3.14 neatly tested support at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages’ confluence near $3.18, bolstered by the rising trend channel’s midline. This swift rebound from a well-defined support zone showcases bullish conviction.

Breakout Signals: Trendlines Clear

The sharp advance cleared multiple hurdles, including a breakout above a downtrend line, likely confirmed with a close above it today. A long-term uptrend line was also reclaimed, adding weight to the bullish shift following last week’s $2.89 swing low, which found footing at the rising channel’s lower boundary. These breakouts mark a clear end to the recent bearish correction, setting the stage for further gains.

Trade Setup: Next Targets and Resistance

Today’s rally past resistance zones like the downtrend line boosts the odds of a third upswing within the rising channel, triggered by a break above the $3.59 swing high. First, the 200-day moving average at $3.46—tested twice as resistance in October—looms as the next key test. A third attempt could break through, but expect some pullback before a sustained reclaim, given its prior rejections.

Risks Ahead: Pullback Clues

The extent of any pullback will shed light on the pattern’s strength. A minor dip toward $3.18 could reinforce support, but a deeper drop would question the breakout’s staying power. The weekly chart’s one-week bullish reversal, with minimal overlap into last week’s range, adds to the optimistic outlook.

Outlook: Pivot Points and Triggers

Symmetry between the current upswing and prior measured moves points to a $3.71 pivot, where advances align. For now, $3.18 support and $3.46 resistance frame the trade. A close above $3.18 locks in bullish momentum, while $3.59 is the gateway to higher targets. Watch today’s close for confirmation—buyers are back, but the 200-day line will test their resolve.

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