Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Outside Week Boosts Momentum

Natural Gas Pushes Higher, Eyes Rising ABCD Target

Natural gas extended its advance on Friday, reaching a session high of $3.25 before encountering resistance at the long-term uptrend line. That line had previously acted as dynamic support within an ascending channel until it was broken on August 11. Today’s rally not only approached that line but also surpassed the prior swing high at $3.20 (B). This shift opens the possibility for continuation of a rising ABCD pattern, with symmetry between measured moves pointing to $3.35 as a minimum potential upside objective.

Key Confluence at $3.35

The $3.35 price level carries added weight given that it coincides with the intersection of two significant trendlines — one rising and one falling. Should the market sustain strength through this zone, attention will naturally shift to the next confluence zone, around the 200-Day moving average at $3.49 and the 127.2% Fibonacci projection of the ABCD pattern at $3.51. The alignment of these levels suggests that if buyers can maintain momentum above $3.35, the path toward $3.49–$3.51 will become increasingly viable.

Moving Averages Signal Improving Demand

Another bullish development was the 20-Day moving average crossing above the 50-Day line, strengthening the short-term trend outlook. A daily close above either the rising or falling trendline near $3.35 would further validate this momentum shift, likely followed by additional signs of growing demand. On the downside, a healthy pullback could see price revisit the cluster of moving averages between $2.98 and $3.00, where the 10-Day, 20-Day, and 50-Day averages converge. That zone now represents a significant support area and could offer the foundation for a renewed leg higher once buyers return.

Weekly Chart Turns Bullish

On the weekly timeframe, natural gas is on track to close above last week’s high of $3.17, establishing a bullish outside week reversal. Importantly, this week’s price range also encompasses the ranges of the prior three weeks, emphasizing the strength of the move and signaling a clear shift in momentum. This type of price action often precedes sustained advances, particularly when accompanied by improving moving average alignment and strengthening channel dynamics.

Outlook

Overall, natural gas is showing early signs of turning the corner. A sustained breakout above $3.35 would not only confirm the rising ABCD pattern but also set the stage for a test of the longer-term resistance zone around $3.49–$3.51. Until then, traders will watch for whether the higher swing low established earlier this week holds, as that would further solidify the bullish reversal narrative.

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