Natural Gas Price Forecast – Continues to Hover Around 200 Day EMA

Natural gas markets have been a bit choppy during the trading session on Wednesday as we sit around the crucial 200 day EMA. That being said, the market is very much in a downtrend so I am looking for some type of rally that I can start fading at the first signs of exhaustion. At this point, I believe that the $2.70 level should offer plenty of resistance, and I would be a seller at the first signs of exhaustion. Furthermore, the $2.80 level would also offer resistance as well.

NATGAS Video 18.03.21

To the downside, the market is likely to go looking towards the $2.25 level, given enough time as we are starting to see temperatures in the United States and Europe coming down the road. That being said, I think it is only a matter of time before rallies get faded, and that is how I would continue to trade this market over the longer term. That being said, I do like the idea of fading any time we show signs of strength, especially if we get a long wick at the top of a daily candlestick. Regardless, there is no scenario in which I buy natural gas between now and October.

It simply a matter of waiting for an opportunity to short after it shows signs of strength, as the cyclical trade is going to be very much in vogue over the next several months. Oversupply of natural gas is the major problem, and that something that is not going to go anywhere anytime soon so shorting is the way to go and when we rally, you simply get out of the way and let the market tell you when it is getting tired.

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