Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues to Look Elevated

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 12-01-2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets fell a bit early during the trading session on Thursday but I think at this point in time you’ve got a situation where markets are starting to show signs of hesitation.

We had originally shot towards the $3.33 level, an area that has been very resistant based on the idea of the winter storm coming up this weekend. The winter storms in the northeastern part of the United States will increase demand for natural gas, so that’s natural. But at the end of the day, it does make a certain amount of sense that we only rise so far. After all, there is a glut of supply out there and that has been an issue for a while. Furthermore, we also have to pay close attention to the fact that the futures markets are already pricing in the February futures contract and therefore getting ready to roll over to March when demand will naturally drop due to the lack of cold weather.

So, I don’t know that this is the last winter storm that we will price in, but it’s certainly one of the last. A little bit of a pullback from here and perhaps even a breakdown below the 200 day EMA could very well send the market right back down toward the $2.50 level. On the upside, if we can take out the wick from the Monday candlestick, then we could challenge $3.50. But at this point in time, I think you are essentially just at the top of the major consolidation area and therefore I don’t necessarily think that would be easy.

This is a market you do not want to be aggressive in at the moment. That will continue to be the case, as the natural gas markets tend to focus only on the short-term weather patterns in the northeastern United States. The markets are closer to the top of the range than the bottom, further adding to the potential of a pullback again.

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