Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Bounce

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 21.07.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to look at the 50-Day EMA offer support. All things being equal, the market could go looking to the $3.00 level above, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where a lot of people have been paying close attention to. With that being the case, it’s very likely that we will continue to see this as a market that is trying to build up enough momentum to finally break out. After all, we have been in a major bottoming pattern for a while, and there are many things to think about when we analyze the natural gas markets.

As the Russians seemingly are getting ready to open up a new front in Ukraine, it’s very likely that we will continue to see the Europeans impose sanctions on Russian natural gas, which will simply go to China and India instead. However, this will cause the Europeans to come to the United States looking for liquefied natural gas, and therefore I think this winter could be rather brutal for those pricing mechanisms. With that being the case, I do think that natural gas will eventually take off to the upside, based not only on the typical seasonal factors, but the fact that the Europeans have also close down the Groningen gas fields, the biggest ones in the European Union. In other words, we are going to be in the same situation we were in last winter.

Keep in mind that larger institutions are piling into the ETF market, instead of necessarily coming in and holding on to a bunch of levered futures positions. That’s exactly how I’m playing this, and I’m thinking of it as a long-term trade. For those of you who are more short-term focused, between the 50-Day EMA and the $3.00 level probably offers a nice “back-and-forth trading environment” that you can operate in. That being said, you need to be cautious with your position sizing as all it would take is a headline out of Russia or Ukraine to cause massive disruption in this market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.