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Christopher Lewis
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Natural gas daily chart, June 20, 2019

Natural gas markets went back and forth in relatively unchanged action during the trading session on Wednesday, as we are getting close to the inventory figure and perhaps even more importantly the Federal Reserve statement. With that being the case, it’s very likely that we will continue to see a lot of selling pressure, especially on rallies. In fact, that’s how I have been trading this market for some time, with the eye on a move down to the $2.25 level, perhaps even the $2.00 level after that.

NATGAS Video 20.06.19

Looking at this market, I think that any rally is an opportunity. The $2.40 level above is resistance, and if we can break above there it’s likely that the $2.50 level above is even more resistive and an opportunity to start selling. I have no interest in buying natural gas, as we are in the wrong time of year to do so. There is a lot of noise in the market, but I do believe that it’s only a matter of time before the sellers look to take advantage of the market.

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Once we get closer to the fall, then it’s possible that natural gas may rally, but in the meantime it seems very unlikely. I think that simply being patient and waiting for an overbought condition is how you should play the natural gas market which of course is extraordinarily oversupplied. All things being equal, it’s very likely that we continue more of the same pattern, but the question now is whether or not we can break down below the $2.30 level? If we do, we will probably go straight down to the $2.25 level after that.

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