Christopher Lewis
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Natural gas daily chart, June 14, 2019

Natural gas markets fell slightly during the trading session on Thursday, but it was rather impressive considering how bearish we have been as of late. We are oversold by just about any measure, and personally I am waiting for an opportunity to sell from higher levels. I believe that the $2.50 level continues to be the “ceiling” in this market, and I think that we are going to go down to the $2.30 level, possibly the $2.25 level after that, and then maybe even the $2.00 level.

NATGAS Video 14.06.19

It’s not until we break above the 50 day EMA that I’d be worry about the downtrend, and that is at the $2.58 level right now. This market is typically bearish this time of year, as the overall demand for heating is going to be very lax to say the least. This is a market that is probably best thought of in terms of value, and therefore if we get a bit “expensive”, then I would be a seller. At this point I think that we are cheap, but the reality is that we can always get cheaper. If we break down below the $2.30 level, then it’s probably going to send the market down to the $2.25 level. I suspect that could happen as well, but I would be much more aggressive on a bounce that show signs of exhaustion as it could give us an opportunity to take advantage of such a strong trend. However, once we are closer to the fall, natural gas markets will probably strengthen as they typically do.

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