Christopher Lewis
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Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have bounced significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, bouncing from the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA of course is a psychologically and structurally important indicator, but at this point time I think that this rally will more than likely be something that we can sell, due to the fact that it will be an oversupplied market going forward yet again. At this point, the $3.00 level above could offer significant resistance, but even if we did break above there, I would not be dissuaded from shorting given enough time.

NATGAS Video 03.03.21

On the other hand, we could turn right back around and smash through the hammer that formed on Friday. If we can break down below the hammer, then it is likely that the market would go looking towards the $2.60 level, and then of course the 200 day EMA which sits just below there. I think that given enough time, this is a market that continues to go lower, based upon the fact that we will have much more in the way of warmer temperatures coming to the northern hemisphere, and even though there is a bit of the “reopening trade” going on out there, natural gas is not price cheaply enough to get me excited about going long.

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I think that the cyclical trade eventually takes over, but a short-term bounce from here does make a little bit of sense considering that the area has been important more than once. This rally is something that I will be selling in a few days on some type of exhaustive candlestick. Natural gas continues to focus on the short-term, so as soon as we get an opportunity to short I will.

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