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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, June 10, 2019

Natural gas markets opened up rather softly during the trading session on Friday but turned around to show signs of life again. The fact that we are stabilize it makes a lot of sense as we are heading into the weekend, and a lot of short-sellers will be looking to take profits. That being said, it’s not time to start buying, rather it’s time to sit on the sidelines and wait for another opportunity to sell what has been a very obviously bearish market.

NATGAS Video 10.06.19

There is no argument for buying natural gas at this point other than the fact that it’s oversold. The $2.50 level above is massive resistance as it was massive support, and of course it is a large, round, midcentury number. With that, I believe that any type of rally from here will be faded, and I would be more than willing to sell this market on signs of exhaustion near round figures like $2.50, $2.60, and so on.

If we did break down below the bottom of the Thursday and Friday candlesticks, then I believe the next move is down to the $2.25 level followed by the $2.00 level. While I would take the trade, I prefer fading rallies as it gives me a bit more room to move and a bit more inertia to build up to help my position. That being said, there’s no scenario right now that I would be willing to put money to work buying natural gas as we are heading into the warmest months of the year in the northern hemisphere.

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