Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – $3.111 Controlling Market’s Direction Today

Natural gas support continued to erode on Tuesday with prices reaching their lowest level in three weeks amid forecasts for less heating demand into the end of the month.

January Natural Gas futures settled at $3.110, down $0.030 or -0.96%.

According to natgasweather.com, during the November 22 to November 27 time period, after a brief warm spell, fresh cold temperatures will begin sweeping into the Midwest Tuesday afternoon, and then across the East on Wednesday to Friday. Lows behind the cold front will drop into the 20s to lower 30s, locally teens, with highs in the 30s and 40s.

The western and southern U.S. will be mild to warm with highs of 60s to 80s due to high pressure dominating, apart from the cool and wet Northwest.

A brief milder break will spread across the east-central U.S. late Friday and Saturday ahead of another stronger cold shot Sunday thru Tuesday. Demand will be moderate to high.

Forecast

The market is under pressure for a seventh session since topping at $3.321 on November 13. At 0807 GMT, January Natural Gas futures settled at $3.112, up 0.002 or +0.06%.

The main range is $2.983 to $3.321. Its retracement zone is $3.151 to $3.111. The market is currently trading on the weak side of this retracement zone. This is helping to give natural gas today’s downside bias.

The direction of the market today will likely be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $3.111. The daily chart is wide open to the downside. On the upside, the first target is the 50% level at $3.151.

This week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report has been moved up to Wednesday, due to the U.S. bank holiday on Thursday. It is expected to show a draw of about 48 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the week-ended November 17.

That compares with a drop of 18 bcf in the preceding week, a fall of 2 bcf a year earlier and a five-year average decline of 26 bcf.

According to the EIA, total natural gas in storage currently stands at 3.772 trillion cubic feet (tcf). That figure is 271 bcf, or around 6.7%, lower than levels at this time a year ago and 101 bcf, or roughly 2.6%, below the five-year average for this time of year.