Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to React to War

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have exploded to the upside yet again, during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of fears out there, based on the war in Iran. The Iranian gas fields, of course, are a suggestion of potential weakness in the overall supply globally. So, we find ourselves pressuring the $4 level.

A short-term pullback could open up a move down to the $3.85 level, where we might see support, but if we break down below there, we start shorting. I don’t like the idea of buying natural gas, quite frankly, even though it does look very bullish. The problem, of course, is that if we get peace breaking out, the demand, or lack of, is going to be a major issue.

If you’re a short-term momentum trader, then yes, this is a market that you could have bought, but unless you can sit there and babysit the charts, you really don’t have any business messing with this right now because it is such a fluid and dangerous situation. One tweet, one press release, one headline could change the entire complexity of most markets, but especially natural gas, which is a bit thin most of the time anyway.

So I’m on the sidelines hoping for peace to break out obviously, but then using that as a potential setup to start shorting this market. In the meantime, I don’t want to swim upstream, which is what most people are doing. A lot of what is pushing this market higher will be very hot short-term money.

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