At one point, I was starting to look at this as a market that could find its way to $7. Now I think that is not possible this winter. Colder weather will be needed.
The natural gas market has fallen again during the early hours here on Tuesday as warmer-than-usual temperatures are heading towards the northeastern part of the United States. Because of this, demand will drop, and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that so does the price of natural gas.
The market is now below the $3.50 level and could start to threaten the $3.20 level. This is pretty low for this time of year, so I’m still looking at this as a potential opportunity on some type of bounce or, for that matter, just a good weather report for colder temperatures. If that’s the case, that should drive up the idea of demand. That being said, natural gas is not being burned as rapidly as I think people thought it was going to.
A rally from here would make a certain amount of sense eventually, but right now we don’t have enough cold weather in the forecast to really get the market excited. A little bit of hesitation before a jump makes quite a bit of sense. Maybe try to get involved on the right-hand side of the V-shape, but as things stand right now, I certainly wouldn’t short this market. We are sitting right at the bottom of the gap that occurred in late October, so maybe that also helps, but right now we’re just looking for a reason to get bullish. Watch the weather reports for the northeastern part of the United States for signs of falling temperatures as your next potential catalyst for higher prices.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.