Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Stabilizing on Friday

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has fallen a bit during the early hours on Friday, but has turned around to be essentially flat. That being said, when you look at the market, we are basically in a major area of both support and resistance over time, as the $3 level is considered to be a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The 50 day EMA sits at $3.07 and is dropping a bit. So that offers a bit of resistance as well. Now, that being said, the natural gas market is a market that has broken down through most of the summer, as you would expect. And this $3 level had been support previously. So, it makes sense, a little bit of market memory coming into the fray.

If we can break above the 200-day EMA at that point in time, I will switch to long only. But right now, I think natural gas is probably neutral more than anything else, as we’re getting ready to roll over at the end of next week, we’ll start rolling over to the November contract next. So, once you start talking about November, the back half of November tends to be fairly cold and natural gas starts to pick up here in the United States, mainly due to heating.

Generally speaking, you get your first shots of cold for the winter, and then you spend a few months going higher at that point. So, we’re going from October to November here at the end of next week. That might mean we just about hit bottom. But I wouldn’t jump in right now. Really, a clearance of the 200-day EMA for me gives me much more clarity.

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