Natural gas softened on Friday as an overextended December contract and warmer U.S. temperatures pressured prices. Despite seasonal bullishness, the market appears due for a pullback toward $4 or even $3.75, making patience essential before considering new long positions.
The natural gas market has shown itself to be rather soft on Friday in the early morning, and at this point in time, it looks a lot like a market that I think will eventually roll over. Quite frankly, this is a market that I think has gotten so far ahead of itself. There is really nothing else that could happen. The market gapped 30% almost immediately, and the December contract got off to an absolute blaze of a path to the upside.
That being said, temperatures in the United States are about to pick up again, and I think this might cause the pullback that so many traders desperately need. I would love to see this thing drop to about $4, possibly even $3.75, but we will just have to wait and see. That obviously would take some time. If we do break to the upside, $4.80 and $5 are both pretty ominous as far as resistance is concerned.
But the last thing I want to do is short this market. That is because this time of year, demand is always going to be higher. Remember, we are trading the December contract. Another thing that I do not want to do is chase a market that is up about 40% in two weeks. It is just bullish behavior. So, you must be patient. If you are looking to buy natural gas, you should get a better price if you just monitor and sit on your hands for a minute and wait for a better opportunity.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.