Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Continue to Rally as Momentum Turns Positive

Natural gas prices continued to rally rising another 4.1% after climbing a robust 16.7% on Monday. Warmer than expected weather is expected to cover most of the US for the next two weeks buoying natural gas demand. There is one disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean that has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm according to NOAA. This storm is unlikely to generate any issues for natural gas infrastructure. US LNG exports were unchanged week over week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices continued to rally as momentum accelerated. Support is seen near the July highs at 1.99. Resistance is seen near the May highs at 2.50. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average which means that a medium-term uptrend is now in place. Short term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic recently generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is also positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

LNG Exports were Flat

US LNG exports are flat week over week. Seven liquefied natural gas vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 25 Bcf departed the United States between July 23 and July 29, 2020, according to shipping data from the EIA.