Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise, but Trend Remains Down

Downtrend remains in place
David Becker
group of industrial workers in a refinery – oil processing equipment and machinery

Natural gas prices closed higher on the session but made a lower low and a lower high which is a sign of a downtrend. Tropical storm Melissa is hovering in the Atlantic near New York and will move back out to see. This will not cause any disruption to natural gas infrastructure. The weather is expected to remain normal for the next 8-14 day, keeping natural gas heating demand subdued.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded into the close, but the downtrend is intact. Prices continued to break down during the week and pushed through an upward sloping trend. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average near 2.28. Short term momentum has flipped and turned positive in oversold territory as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Additionally, the current reading on the fast stochastic is 8, well below the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum remains negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Demand Declined in the Latest Week

The EIA reported that demand declined in the latest week drive by the power generation sector. Total US  consumption of natural gas fell by 3% compared with the previous report week, according to the EIA. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 6% week over week because of overall lower cooling demand. Industrial sector consumption decreased by 1% week over week. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 1%. Natural gas exports to Mexico were the same as last week, averaging 5.4 Bcf per day.

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