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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip As Elsa Curves Eastward

By:
David Becker
Published: Jul 6, 2021, 18:55 UTC

The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip As Elsa Curves Eastward

Natural gas prices were higher at the open but began to decline as the U.S. trading session commenced. Prices closed lower on the trading session but made a higher high and a higher low, sign of an uptrend. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal on the coasts for the next 2-weeks, according to the most update weather report from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Tropical Storm Elsa has moved into the Gulf of Mexico but is expected to move east and up the United States coast. Most natural gas infrastructure should be unaffected. Net imports from Canada increased in the latest week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices were poised to break higher but met resistance near the July highs at 3.82. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.54. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Prices are overbought as the RSI (relative strength index) is printing a reading of 72, above the overbought trigger level of 70, which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term positive momentum is decelerating. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Canadian Imports Rise

Net imports from Canada increase, according to data from the EIA. The average total U.S. supply of natural gas fell slightly by 0.1% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.4% compared with the previous report week to average 92.7 Bcf per day. Average net imports from Canada increased by 4.8% from last week.

About the Author

David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.

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